Timeline Topography Tales

Six experiments with a simple optimizer's curse model

Disclaimer: I can’t be sure I didn’t make any errors here.

Mar 5 • titotal

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2

February 2026

The best cause will disappoint you: An intro to the optimisers curse

I would like to thank David Thorstadt for looking over this.

Feb 11 • titotal

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2

January 2026

Author, assistant, and persona: the metaphors I use for LLM chatbots

Disclaimer: I have expertise in computational physics, but not in LLM’s or machine learning.

Jan 29 • titotal

9

October 2025

How AI may become deceitful, sycophantic... and lazy

Disclaimers: I am a computational physicist, not a machine learning expert: set your expectations of accuracy accordingly.

Oct 7, 2025 • titotal

8

4

June 2025

A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models

Disclaimers:

Jun 19, 2025 • titotal

68

10

9

May 2025

15 simple AI image prompts that stump chatGPT

Introduction:

May 23, 2025 • titotal

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3

4

April 2025

Slopworld 2035: The dangers of mediocre AI

None of this article was written with AI assistance.

Apr 14, 2025 • titotal

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2

March 2025

AI is not taking over material science (for now): an analysis and conference report

Confidence check: This is my field of expertise, I work in the field and I have a PhD in the subject.

Mar 11, 2025 • titotal

7

1

January 2025

A nerds guide to healthy dating

Disclaimer: this blog is usually about debunking singularity nerds.

Jan 30, 2025 • titotal

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1

October 2024

The walled marketplace of ideas: a statistical critique of SSC book reviews

Introduction

Oct 17, 2024 • titotal

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3

September 2024

Is "superhuman" AI forecasting BS? Some experiments on the "539" bot from the Centre for AI Safety

Disclaimer: I am a computational physicist’s and this investigation is outside of my immediate area of expertise.

Sep 18, 2024 • titotal

2

1

July 2024

Most smart and skilled people are outside of the EA/rationalist community: an analysis

This post is aimed at the rationalist/EA community, but I think the takeaways apply to any small group or bubble.

Jul 12, 2024 • titotal

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