Automated trading bot for 15-minute crypto prediction markets on Polymarket.

• Multi-Source Signal Integration: Combines Polymarket order book data with real-time Binance market data to identify true mispricings
• Dual Confidence Calculation: A/B testing framework comparing additive and Bayesian confidence methods
  • Bayesian Method (new, optional): Proper probability theory with log-likelihood accumulation and market priors
  • Additive Method (default): Directional voting with weighted signal aggregation
  • Both methods always calculated and stored for performance comparison
• Edge Calculation: Directional voting system where external Binance signals validate Polymarket pricing (100% total weight):
  • Price Momentum (30%): Velocity, acceleration, and RSI analysis over 15-minute lookback
  • Polymarket Momentum (20%): Internal price action confirmation on the CLOB
  • Order Flow (20%): Buy/sell pressure from Binance taker volume
  • Cross-Exchange Divergence (20%): Detects when Polymarket pricing differs from Binance trends
  • Volume-Weighted Momentum (10%): VWAP distance with volume quality filtering
• Dynamic Position Sizing: Confidence-based scaling with portfolio exposure limits

📖 For detailed strategy logic and signal breakdowns, see docs/STRATEGY.md

• Confidence-Based Sizing: Position size scales with signal strength (configurable multiplier)
• Exit Plan: Places limit sell orders at 99 cents for near-guaranteed profitable exits
• 🛑 Midpoint Stop Loss: Primary safety net triggers at $0.30 midpoint price (configurable)
• 🔄 Hedged Reversal: Supports holding both sides during trend flips, clearing losers via stop loss
• 📈 Dynamic Scale-In: Adds to winning positions with confidence-weighted timing (up to 12m early for high-conviction trades)
• ⚡ Real-Time Monitoring: 1-second position checking cycle with WebSocket-powered price updates
• 🛡️ Balance Cross-Validation: Symbol-specific validation with fallback to position data for API reliability issues
• 📊 Settlement Auditing: Automated P&L verification against exchange data (logs discrepancies > $0.10)

• Bayesian Confidence Calculation (v0.4.4): New probabilistic method using log-likelihood accumulation with market priors. Both additive and Bayesian methods calculated for A/B testing. Toggle via BAYESIAN_CONFIDENCE setting.
• Enhanced Position Reports (v0.4.3): Clean, aligned format with directional emojis (📈📉) and status indicators showing position health at a glance
• Real-Time WebSocket Integration: Near-instant P&L and order fill updates via Polymarket's User Channel (fills/cancels) and Market Channel (midpoint prices)
• Batch API Optimization: Fetch midpoints for all positions in a single call, drastically reducing API overhead
• Enhanced Scale-In Logic: Confidence-weighted dynamic timing allows high-conviction winners to be scaled as early as 12 minutes before expiry
• Enhanced Balance Validation: Symbol-specific tolerance for API reliability issues (especially XRP), with cross-validation between balance and position data
• Reward Optimization: Exit plans automatically adjust prices to ensure they earn liquidity rewards via check_scoring API
• Intelligent Position Sync: Startup logic detects and "adopts" untracked exchange positions for automated management
• Settlement Auditing: Automated verification of local P&L against official closed-positions API data
• Modular Backend: Fully refactored src/trading/orders and src/data/market_data for better maintainability

💡 Tip: See docs/RISK_PROFILES.md for pre-configured profiles (Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, Ultra Aggressive)

• Auto-Claim: Automatically redeems winnings via CTF contract
• Dashboard: Interactive HTML dashboard with live stats
• Discord: Real-time trade notifications
• Database: Full SQLite tracking of all trades

💡 New to PolyFlup? See QUICKSTART.md for a 5-minute setup guide.

1. Clone the repository

   git clone https://github.com/Niller2005/polyflup.git
   cd polyflup

2. Install dependencies

   uv sync

3. Configure environment

   cp .env.example .env
   # Edit .env with your private key (PROXY_PK) and settings

Key settings in .env (Balanced profile shown):

# Trading & Position Sizing
BET_PERCENT=5.0                      # Base position size (% of balance)
MIN_EDGE=0.35                        # Minimum confidence to enter (35%)
MAX_SPREAD=0.15                      # Max allowed spread (15%)
CONFIDENCE_SCALING_FACTOR=5.0        # Position scaling multiplier
LOSING_SIDE_MIN_CONFIDENCE=0.40      # Higher threshold for underdog entries

# Confidence Calculation Method
BAYESIAN_CONFIDENCE=NO               # Use Bayesian method (YES) or Additive method (NO)

# Binance Advanced Strategy
ENABLE_MOMENTUM_FILTER=YES           # Price velocity, acceleration, RSI (30% weight)
ENABLE_ORDER_FLOW=YES                # Buy/sell pressure analysis (20% weight)
ENABLE_DIVERGENCE=YES                # Cross-exchange mismatch detection (20% weight)
ENABLE_VWM=YES                       # Volume-weighted momentum (10% weight)
MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK_MINUTES=15         # Momentum analysis window

# Risk Management
ENABLE_STOP_LOSS=YES                 # Global stop loss switch
STOP_LOSS_PRICE=0.30                 # Midpoint stop loss trigger ($0.30)
ENABLE_TAKE_PROFIT=NO                # Let winners run
ENABLE_HEDGED_REVERSAL=YES           # Hold both sides during trend flip

# Exit Plan (Aggressive Profit Taking)
ENABLE_EXIT_PLAN=YES                 # Place limit sell orders at target price
EXIT_PRICE_TARGET=0.99               # Target exit price (99 cents)
EXIT_MIN_POSITION_AGE=60             # Wait 60s before placing exit order
ENABLE_REWARD_OPTIMIZATION=YES       # Optimize exit orders for liquidity rewards

# Position Scaling
ENABLE_SCALE_IN=YES                  # Add to winners near expiry
SCALE_IN_MIN_PRICE=0.60              # Min price to scale (60%)
SCALE_IN_MAX_PRICE=0.90              # Max price to scale (90%)
SCALE_IN_TIME_LEFT=450               # Default scale-in at ≤7.5m (Dynamic up to 12m)
SCALE_IN_MULTIPLIER=1.5              # Add 150% more (2.5x total position)

# Order Management
UNFILLED_TIMEOUT_SECONDS=300         # Cancel stale orders after 5 minutes

💡 Need a different risk profile? Check docs/RISK_PROFILES.md for Conservative, Aggressive, and Ultra Aggressive configurations.

This runs both the bot and the real-time Svelte dashboard in containers.

docker compose up -d --build

• Dashboard: http://localhost:3001
• API Stats: http://localhost:3001/api/stats
• Bot Logs: docker logs -f polyflup-bot

uv run polyflup.py

cd ui
npm install
npm start

The dashboard will be available at http://localhost:5173

polyflup/
├── src/
│   ├── bot.py                    # Main bot loop
│   ├── config/                   # Configuration & settings
│   ├── data/
│   │   ├── database.py           # SQLite operations
│   │   ├── migrations.py         # Database schema migrations
│   │   └── market_data/          # Price data, indicators, Binance integration
│   ├── trading/
│   │   ├── orders/               # Order placement, CLOB client, market info
│   │   ├── position_manager/    # Entry, exit, scale-in, stop loss, reversal
│   │   ├── strategy.py           # Signal calculation & edge detection
│   │   └── settlement.py         # Market settlement & auto-claim
│   └── utils/                    # Logging, WebSocket, Web3, notifications
├── ui/
│   ├── server.js                 # Express API server for dashboard
│   ├── src/                      # Svelte components
│   └── package.json              # Node.js dependencies
├── polyflup.py                   # Bot entry point
├── trades.db                     # Shared SQLite database
├── .env.example                  # Configuration template
└── docs/                         # Strategy, risk profiles, migrations

After collecting 50+ trades with migration 007 data, compare performance:

uv run python compare_bayesian_additive.py

This script shows:

• Overall win rates for both methods
• Performance by confidence buckets (0-25%, 25-35%, etc.)
• Average edge and PnL per trade
• Recommendation on which method to use

Note: Only new trades (after migration 007) will have both confidence values. Run the bot for ~100 trades before comparing.

Run pending migrations manually (usually auto-runs on bot startup):

uv run python run_migrations.py

• CHANGELOG.md - Version history and release notes
• AGENTS.md - Coding standards and guidelines for AI agents/contributors
• docs/STRATEGY.md - Deep dive into the trading strategy and Binance integration
• docs/RISK_PROFILES.md - Risk management profiles (Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive)
• docs/POSITION_FLOW.md - Complete position lifecycle documentation
• docs/API.md - API reference for Polymarket, Binance, and Dashboard endpoints
• docs/MIGRATIONS.md - Database migration guide for developers

This software is for educational purposes only. Use at your own risk. Crypto markets are volatile and you can lose money.