Bill Walsh wrote in his 1957 Master’s thesis that “without a doubt, the most revolutionary cycle change was brought about by the effective use of the forward pass.” He added that “it did more than any other event to change football from a contest of strength to a contest of strategy.”
Studying football is like peeling an onion. You finish one layer and are presented with another one. Each new analysis opens a more granular question.
Data continues to accumulate and analysis in Amercan football is ubiquitous. Perhaps no other position receives more attention than the quarterback. What makes the rankings of a quarterback? How can Dallas star quartberback Dak Prescott seem less productive on a 7-9-1 team despite his chart topping completion rate? Further questions arise about the actual peaks and valleys of a long NFL season for any quarterback. Joe Burrow is a case in point when comparing with Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins — Burrows and Cousins both had limited playing time yet the former was a fantasy fan favorite by a huge margin (96.80% to 13.70%).
This of course opens a whole new conversation on the power of impressions within the fan base and in team structures. We can save that for another time.
Statistics can counter the “eyeball test” where player contribution can be viewed in a different light. Prescott’s numbers look great, but the team seemed to struggle at home during key televised contests. Matthew Stafford’s ‘haywire’ gene, a penchant for throwing interceptions at the wrong time, may not actually be as valid a statistic when we learn that the interception record (336) is held by Green Bay Packer Hall of Famer Brett Favre.
Data analytics indicates that the passing game is critical to a quarterback’s ranking. Boris Chen has done some work with recent data that We can dig deeper using discretization and binning techniques that offer more granular analysis (and open new angles like projections).
The following charts confirm that the higher passing attempts and completions do in fact increase the quaterback ranking. The correlation between winning and pass completion is an interesting question:
https://rpubs.com/dgrunwal/1388768
It’s like the old adage in life, the more you try the better the odds you’ll get something. Lincoln once famously said he was successful because he got to make (and learn) from making more mistakes. However, Kings only get to make one big mistake.
It kind of gives new light to QB interceptions. No pain, no gain! Matt Stafford may not rush as much as Buffalo QB Josh Allen, but he passes as does Seattle’s Sam Darnold.
The Dead Center of 2025 QB Completions
Total QBs analyzed: 75
Average Completions: 149.41
Median Completions: 110
Top QB Completions: 404 (Dak Prescott)
Lowest QB Completions: 1 (Anthony Richardson Sr. (IND), Kedon Slovis (ARI)
The completed program in R that generated the charts and data file is on my Git Hub page.
Here’s a breakdown of Dak Prescott’s 2025 season stats:
Passing
- CMP (Completions): 404
- ATT (Attempts): 600
- PCT (Completion %): 67.3%
- YDS (Passing Yards): 4,552
- Y/A (Yards per Attempt): 7.6
- TD (Passing Touchdowns): 30
- INT (Interceptions): 10
- SACKS: 31
Rushing
- ATT (Rushing Attempts): 53
- YDS (Rushing Yards): 177
- TD (Rushing Touchdowns): 2
Other
- FL (Fumbles): 5 (1 lost)
- G (Games Played): 17
- FPTS (Fantasy Points): ~313.8
- FPTS/G (Fantasy Points per Game): ~18.5
- ROST (Roster %): Typically near 100% in most leagues
Key Takeaways:
- Prescott had a strong passing season with over 4,500 yards and 30 TDs, ranking among the top QBs.
- His completion rate (67.3%) and yards per attempt (7.6) show efficiency.
- Moderate rushing contribution with 177 yards and 2 TDs.
- Fantasy-wise, he delivered solid QB1 numbers. [espn.com], [statmuse.com], [pro-footba…erence.com]
Additional charts
https://rpubs.com/dgrunwal/1388770
https://rpubs.com/dgrunwal/1388771
https://rpubs.com/dgrunwal/1388773
Football Analytics 