EMOGCP - Russian Oil & Gas Monitor

EMOGCP - Russian Oil & Gas Monitor

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A New “Shadow Fleet” – Blockade Running
Much as the Urals discount inspired the creation of Russia’s alleged ~1,000-ship-strong “shadow fleet”, recent oil prices may motivate shipowners to…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Russian LNG after onset of Iran Crisis – Is EU supply at risk?
President Putin indicated in an interview with local media that Russia might redirect Yamal LNG exports from the EU to more willing buyers. Fleet…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Russian Oil After Iran – Strategic Implications
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly rebalanced the relative negotiation positions of Russian oil exporters vs. Chinese and…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - February, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, Russian oil is suddenly in need, the Urals discount is quickly contracting, and OPEC+ quota increase raises capacity…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Marginal Well Models and Russia's Weak Wellhead Economics
Russia’s fall in oil drilling in 2025 was undoubtedly influenced by a weak oil price and a strong ruble. To test how much new well returns were…
 • Ronald P. Smith
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Russian LNG after onset of Iran Crisis – Is EU supply at risk?
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China Boosts Russian Oil Purchases – Oligopsony Looms
China is buying the Russian oil India rejected, boosting Russian exports to two-year highs. Consequently, the concentration of buying power has pushed…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Russian drilling falls in 2H25 – What does it mean?
Russian oil drilling fell by 10% y/y in 2H25. Is the drop in Indian exports to blame, or was it driven by oil prices, currency issues, and improved…
 • Ronald P. Smith
TRIZ studies – The Tyumen Suite
“Hard-to-produce” reserves (TRIZ) are the key to Russia remaining in the top 3 of oil-producing countries. In this report, we examine the Tyumen Suite…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Import substitution: Necessity, the mother of invention
Since 2014, Russia has materially reduced its dependence on imported oil & gas technology. Let’s look at production localization of azimuth thrusters…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Can Russia manage temporary production cuts?
Russian oil production and Indian imports declined further in January. Unless China boosts purchases, significant output cuts may follow. If so, how…
 • Ronald P. Smith
US-India trade deal: Can China absorb India’s Russian oil imports?
In a new trade deal with the US, India has supposedly agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil. China is the presumed buyer of excess Russian barrels…
 • Ronald P. Smith
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - January, 2026
In oil: China buys more Russian oil, the CPC outages shake markets, and an EU maritime ban. In gas: Europe sees collapsing storage and cold weather, and…
 • Ronald P. Smith
EMOGCP - Russian Oil & Gas Monitor
EMOGCP - Russian Oil & Gas Monitor
Professional commentary on the Russian oil & gas sector from Ronald P. Smith, an internationally-recognized expert and consultant. Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners, LLC
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A short overview of key developments of the recent month relating to Russian oil & gas.
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Value-added reports on subjects related to Russian oil & gas.
Founders' Room
Founder's Room holds our higher-level, more in-depth reports for those interested in serious analysis of all things related to Russian oil & gas.
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