Gold: The current Middle East situation remains a key factor influencing financial markets. Over the past weekend, the U.S. pressured Iran, threatening to destroy its power plants if the country failed to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. In response, Iran stated that if Trump attacked Iranian power plants, it would retaliate with multiple measures, including a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.   The Middle East situation has driven up oil prices, posing risks of fueling global inflation. Market concerns over a potential global deflationary cycle have led to a noticeable short-term downturn in global stock markets.   Chen Yu, senior analyst at Rising (exclusively invited by Plotio), notes that the recent sharp decline in gold prices is primarily driven by market concerns over a liquidity crisis. The current situation carries risks of further escalation, and short-term vigilance against downward pressure on gold prices remains necessary. However, from a medium-to long-term perspective, excessive pessimism is unwarranted.   Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, last week's market saw a sharp decline with a bearish close, indicating strong short-term selling pressure. Indicators show the price has broken below the 20-day moving average, signaling potential further downside risks. Focus on the resistance level at $4,453 during the session.   Crude Oil: In response to potential U.S. actions against Iranian power plants, Iran has issued warnings of a possible complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. With Middle East conflicts spiraling out of control and Iran refusing to open the Strait, disruptions in crude oil supply are expected to persist, making it highly likely that oil prices will remain strong in the coming period.   In its March balance sheet, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised downward its 2026 crude oil demand forecast by 210,000 barrels per day, primarily due to large-scale flight cancellations in the Middle East and disruptions in LPG supply. Higher oil prices and greater uncertainty about global economic prospects are expected to further suppress demand. However, the IEA significantly lowered its supply growth forecast by 1.3 million barrels per day, which helps alleviate the previous oversupply situation in crude oil markets.   Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, the market has closed with extended lower shadows over the past two weeks, indicating intense bullish-bearish contention in oil prices recently. On the daily chart, prices have shown a volatile upward trend, generally fluctuating within the $90-$100 range. Today's focus should be on the support level at $95.   U.S. Dollar: Regarding the Federal Reserve, Board Member Waller stated that due to rising oil prices, the central bank had urgently withdrawn its March rate cut decision. Should U.S. employment data remain weak in the coming months, the Fed may advocate for another rate cut later this year. Vice Chair Bowman reiterated expectations of three rate cuts by 2026, with dovish sentiment persisting within the central bank.   However, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut remains low. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in April stands at 12.4%, while maintaining rates unchanged accounts for 87.6%. By June, the Fed is projected to raise rates by 25 basis points cumulatively (21.9% probability), with a 50-basis-point increase expected at 1.6%, and rates remaining unchanged at 76.5%.   Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, the market has recently rebounded from low levels and broken above the 20-day moving average, indicating short-term strength. On the daily chart, recent sessions saw pullbacks testing the 20-day moving average. Failure to break below this level could signal further upside potential. Short-term attention should focus on the support level at 99.33.   Nikkei 225: On the daily chart, the market has been experiencing a volatile downward trend recently, which is likely to persist in the short term. Technical indicators show that the price previously broke below the 20-day moving average and failed to retest this level after a rebound attempt, indicating weak momentum. Investors should remain cautious about further downside risks and monitor the resistance at the 52,126 level during intraday trading.   Copper: On the daily chart, the market has recently shown volatile downward movement with bears dominating the trend. Technically, the recent breakout below the one-month consolidation range suggests potential downside expansion. On the 4-hour chart, the downward oscillation remains the primary pattern, with intraday attention focused on resistance at the $5.40 level.   23 March Market Snapshot: 1. Two sources revealed that the United States may have no alternative but to launch a ground operation to seize Iran'sKharg Island. 2. The Iranian Armed Forces stated that they have shifted from defensive to offensive posture.   23 March Key Data/Events Preview: 1. 22:00 US January Construction Spending Monthly Rate. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Important Disclaimer: The above content and views are provided by Rising, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.] In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail. This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.

Gold: Against the backdrop of escalating Middle East tensions, international oil prices have held above $90, lifting global inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve’s latest projections revised up its year-end PCE inflation forecast, with high inflation and elevated interest rates fueling a stagflation narrative that weighs on gold. Markets now fear further Fed tightening rather than easing.   A stronger dollar and rising gold transaction costs are also headwinds. The US Dollar Index has returned above the 100 level, trading consistently above 99 in recent sessions. A robust dollar has depressed non-US currencies, raising the cost of gold purchases in those currencies and extending gold’s downtrend.   Mai Dong, Investment Strategist at Rising Research (exclusively invited by Plotio), argues that gold is likely to remain weak amid rising global stagflation risks and dollar strength.   Technical Analysis: Gold posted a large bearish candle on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, prices hover around $4500. On the hourly chart, prices trade below the 60-period and 120-period moving averages, with the downtrend intact. For today, support is at $4310, with resistance at $4550.

Gold: This week marks a super central bank week, with nearly all major advanced economies holding policy meetings and keeping interest rates unchanged. The European Central Bank is concerned that surging oil prices will hit growth and inflation; the Bank of Japan stood pat; the Bank of England voted unanimously to hold rates and even left the door open to further hikes; and the Federal Reserve kept rates steady, with markets pricing in just one rate cut for 2026.   Major central banks worldwide are closely monitoring the massive uncertainty stemming from the Middle East energy shock and have unanimously prioritized inflation risks. With high interest rates—gold’s biggest headwind—reaffirmed, bullion’s appeal has weakened dramatically, sending prices tumbling.   Mai Dong, Investment Strategist at Rising (exclusively invited by Plotio), opines that market focus remains on the Federal Reserve, which is now priced for just 7 basis points of easing this year, with no cuts at all possible in the first half of 2026.   Technical Analysis: Gold closed with a large bearish candle yesterday. On the daily chart, prices found temporary support at $4500. On the 1-hour chart, prices trade below the 60-period and 120-period moving averages, with the downtrend intact. For today, support is at $4620, with resistance at $4760.   Crude Oil: On 19 March, sources reported that Saudi Arabia had suspended oil loading at the port of Yanbu. Oil prices jumped sharply in the short term on the news, briefly breaking above the $100 mark. Prices pulled back once loading operations at the port resumed.   At the same time, Iran targeted refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, but storage facilities suffered limited damage, resulting in only modest actual supply disruptions. Although the conflict has spread to energy infrastructure, both sides have exercised restraint, limiting the impact on oil prices.   In summary, the US-Iran air war continues with no end in sight. With the Strait of Hormuz still under blockade, oil prices are set to remain strong.   Technical Analysis: Crude closed with a small bullish candle yesterday. On the daily chart, prices consolidate within the $92-$101 range. On the 1-hour chart, prices have not set fresh highs or lows recently, staying range-bound between $92 and $101. For today, support is at $91, with resistance at $100.   U.S. Dollar: Following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, despite higher inflation projections, the overall stance remains accommodative. With stagflation risks looming, markets believe rates could stay unchanged in the first half of 2026, with rate cuts potentially delayed until the second half.   The Fed maintains a cautious stance toward easing. Especially with the US-Iran air war showing no signs of ending, oil prices remain a key inflation driver—but this is seen delaying rather than scrapping rate cuts.   Technical Analysis: The US Dollar Index closed with a small bearish candle yesterday. On the daily chart, prices oscillate within the 99–100 range. On the 1-hour chart, prices trade below the 60-period and 120-period moving averages with weak downward momentum, though a short-term downtrend remains in place. For today, support is at 98.70, with resistance at 99.50.   Nasdaq: Prices closed with a bearish candle yesterday. On the daily chart, prices have narrowed into consolidation within the 24200–25200 range. On the 1-hour chart, prices found strong support near 24000; a failure to break to fresh lows today could trigger a short-term rebound. For today, support is at 24200, with resistance at 24750.   Copper: Prices closed with a bearish candle yesterday. On the daily chart, prices have broken below the 60-period and 120-period moving averages, suggesting a potential trend shift. On the 1-hour chart, prices trade below the 60-period and 120-period moving averages, with the downtrend extending. For today, support is at $5.30, with resistance at $5.50.   20 March Market Snapshot： 1. RIA Novosti reported that Muhammad al-Buhaithi, a member of the political office of the Houthi movement in Yemen, said the group may block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in support of Iran. 2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel will pause strikes on Iranian energy facilities, as Iran’s nuclear program and missile production capabilities have been destroyed. 3. The International Energy Agency announced that a total of 426 million barrels of crude oil are being released to the market, including 172 million barrels from the United States.   20 March Key Data/Events Preview： 1. 18:00 (Beijing Time) Eurozone January seasonally adjusted trade balance. 2. 19:00 (Beijing Time) UK March CBI industrial order expectations. 3. 20:30 (Beijing Time) Canada January retail sales month-on-month.  4. 01:00 (Beijing Time, 21 March) US oil rig count for the week ending 20 March. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Important Disclaimer: The above content and views are provided by Rising, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.] In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail. This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.