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Diffusion models and minimax rates: scores, functionals, and tests

Subhodh Kotekal (MIT)
E18-304

Abstract: While score-based diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in high-dimensional generative modeling, some basic theoretical questions have not been precisely resolved. In this talk, we address minimax optimality of density estimation, functional estimation, and hypothesis testing. First, we show diffusion models achieve the optimal density estimation rate over Holder balls. This result is a consequence of our sharp characterization of minimax score estimation across all noising levels. A key contribution is our lower bound argument which involves a slight…

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The Winner’s Curse in Data-Driven Decision-Making

Hamsa Bastani (University of Pennsylvania)
E18-304

Abstract: Data-driven decision-making relies on credible policy evaluation: we need to know whether a learned policy truly improves outcomes. This talk examines a key failure mode—the winner’s curse—where policy optimization exploits prediction error and selection, producing optimistic, often spurious performance gains. First, we show that model-based policy optimization and evaluation can report large, stable improvements even when common “reassurances” from the literature hold: training data come from randomized trials, estimated gains are large, and predictive models are accurate, well-calibrated, and…

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A Mathematical Basis for Moravec’s Paradox, and Some Open Problems

Max Simchowitz (Carnegie Mellon University)
E18-304

Abstract: Moravec’s Paradox observes that AI systems have struggled far more with learning physical action than symbolic reasoning. Yet just recently, there has been a tremendous increase in the capability of AI-driven robotic systems, reminiscent  of the early acceleration in language modeling capabilities a few years prior.  Using the lens of control-theoretic stability, this talk will demonstrate an exponential separation between natural regimes for learning in the physical world and in discrete/symbolic settings, thereby providing a mathematical basis for Moravec’s…

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When do spectral gradient updates help in deep learning?

Dmitriy Drusvyatskiy (University of California, San Diego)
E18-304

Abstract: Spectral gradient methods, such as the recently proposed Muon optimizer, are a promising alternative to standard gradient descent for training deep neural networks and transformers. Yet, it remains unclear in which regimes these spectral methods are expected to perform better. In this talk, I will present a simple condition that predicts when a spectral update yields a larger decrease in the loss than a standard gradient step. Informally, this criterion holds when, on the one hand, the gradient of the…

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WiDS Cambridge 2026

For the tenth year, MIT and Microsoft New England are proud to collaborate with Women in Data Science (WiDS) Worldwide to bring the WiDS regional conference to Cambridge, Massachusetts. This one-day conference will feature an all-female lineup of speakers and panelists from academia and industry to talk about the latest data science-related research in a number of domains, and to learn how leading-edge researchers and companies are leveraging data science for success.

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MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
617-253-1764