Heavy Moat Investments

Heavy Moat Investments

Home
Podcast
Notes
Chat
Portfolio Updates
Deep Dive - Business Model
Deep Dive - Fundamentals
Earnings
Strategy
Quick Pitches
All Deep Dives
Archive
Leaderboard
About
Welcome to Heavy Moat Investments (Start here)
Your guide to this publication: Key features, links, who am I, what are my goals, my investment process, reviews and more
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Stevanato Group: Leadership, growth and capital efficiency in the age of Injectables
A misunderstood compounder with stronger growth, long-term focused management and better future profitability than it seems.
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Down 50% on my first shares: Is the Shift4 Payments thesis broken?
A critical view on my original Shift4 thesis, what changed, if the thesis is still in tact and current valuation
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Do you want an alternative to Substacks chat?
Should we switch to Telegram or Discord?
 • Heavy Moat Investments
February 2026 Portfolio Update
11 holdings, 2 recent buy, 1 sale and 4 trims.
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Level up your investment journey now!

Business Model

View all
Stevanato Group: A Picks-and-Shovels play on the rise of injectable drugs
An easier way to play the rise of biologics and GLP-1s than Novo Nordisk
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Terminal Value in an Exponential World
Why I’m cutting Software exposure despite “Cheap” valuations
 • Heavy Moat Investments
The InPost bear case: Risk reward calculation
Lockers, Margins and Mispricing: A Three-Scenario Look at Europe’s Most Misunderstood Logistics Flywheel
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Why shouldn't MuM work out well from here?
Understanding and valuing Mensch und Maschine.
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Constellation Software's perfect storm
AI fears, a weak quarter and the GOAT stepping down (wishing him a speedy recovery!)
 • Heavy Moat Investments
The Stock Exchange Business model primer
How they work, where they win and what makes them interesting investments
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Ashtead Technology vs. Ashtead Group: Similar name, different game
Diving (pun intended) into the equipment rental industry
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Danaher: From Star Performer to Post-Pandemic Hangover
For years, Danaher stood at the center of secular growth narratives in biotech and diagnostics.
 • Heavy Moat Investments
The Indictment That Reads Like Satire: RCI Hospitality and a Tax Auditor
A serious situation with some big question marks
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Edenred/Pluxee: Sunk cost fallacy or opportunity amidst more regulatory pressures?
Am I deluding myself with my large bet on Edenred? Let's analyze it!
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Cellebrite: Dominating digital Forensics ( Growth plus special situation)
Developing the picks and shovels of digital crime fighting
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Why Scalable Software Might Be Riskier Than You Think in the Age of AI
The risks of AI to software companies and where to invest instead
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Heavy Moat Investments
Heavy Moat Investments
Straightforward Quality Investing – Actionable & Insightful Analysis. Written by Niklas, a young and self-taught investor.
Links
20% off Koyfin and 7 day free trial
My main analysis tool as seen in many of my articles.
1% additional yield on bonds/ETFs with Silo Markets
A good way to own safe products. IKBR takes care of asset custody, US customers only right now
Finchat 15% discount affiliate link
A very useful tool to visualize unique KPIs for thousands of businesses
20% off Portseido
Easy portfolio tracking with a fantastic team and fast support
Seeking Alpha Discount/free trial affiliate link
Stripe Carbon Removal Contribution
Resources
Inverse DCF Template
IRR Model Template
Inverse DCF explained
Owner Earnings explained
Net Working Capital explained
This is not financial advise!
Click to read more details.
Podcasts
Logo for Heavy Moat Investments Podcast
Heavy Moat Investments Podcast
Casual Year end chat with René Sellmann talking 2025 reflections, 2026 predictions, Moats and AI
Recommendations
View all 46
D Invests
D Invests
D Invests
Capitalist Letters
Capitalist Letters
Oguz Erkan
Waver Research
Waver Research
Waver
The Dutch Investors
The Dutch Investors
The Dutch Investors
Secret Sauce Investing
Secret Sauce Investing
Secret Sauce Investing

Quick Pitches

View all
When Scale Meets Scarcity: Notes on a Controversial Platform (Too hard pile multi bagger opportunity)
Notes on a stock that quickly went into my too hard pile
 • Heavy Moat Investments
A dirty, high risk Ad Tech bet with fantastic Upside (7-52% expected 5y-CAGR)
Expected revenue CAGR 20-30%, operating leverage, multiple expansion against dilution and bad management
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Copart quality score: A high quality business finally on sale?
Is it finally attractive after a 38% drawdown?
SPS Commerce: Compounder on Sale or a fallen Angel?
A 60% drawdown after slowing growth and a botched acquisition
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Revisiting Eurofins Scientific: A global leader in Laboratory Testing services
Over the last months I’ve done a massive restructuring of my portfolio, as many of you will have realized.
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Greggs PLC: Undervalued, but how good is the business?
The pinnacle of British food
Shift 4 is not a set and forget stock
Strong returns, but far from a set and forget stock
 • Heavy Moat Investments
How the Edenred Amplified 25-28 Update elevated my conviction
Shares are down 7% after a good Capital Market Day
 • Heavy Moat Investments
New Buy: The Most Efficient Delivery Model You’ve Never Heard Of (24% IRR expectation)
Superior unit economics, higher sustainability and a long reinvestment runway
 • Heavy Moat Investments
Top posts
Level up your investment journey now!
© 2026 Heavy Moat Investments · Publisher Terms
Substack · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture