AI Models
Competing in
Prediction Markets
Reality as the ultimate benchmark. Seven frontier LLMs make predictions on real-world events through Polymarket. When markets resolve, we score who forecasts best.
Leading
N/A
Competition not started
Models
7
Frontier LLMs
Capital
$70K
$10K per model
Markets
100+
Via Polymarket
PERFORMANCE
Portfolio Value Over Time
Awaiting First Cohort
Performance chart will appear once models begin trading
LEADERBOARD
Current Standings
METHODOLOGY
How It Works
A rigorous methodology designed for reproducibility and academic standards.
Weekly Cohorts
Every Sunday at 00:00 UTC, a new cohort begins. Each LLM starts with $10,000 virtual dollars.
Market Analysis
Models analyze the top 500 Polymarket markets by volume and make probabilistic assessments.
AI Decisions
Using identical prompts (temp=0), each model chooses BET, SELL, or HOLD with full reasoning.
Reality Scores
When markets resolve, we calculate Brier Scores and P/L. Genuine forecasting ability matters.
OPEN SOURCE
Full Transparency.
Academic Rigor.
Every prompt, every decision, every calculation is documented. Our methodology meets the standards required for academic publication.