Monthly Archives: December 2019

Design of a Decade – 10 Biggest Pop Culture Trends/Moments of the 2010s (Part 2)

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And now it’s time to break down the remaining five moments and/or trends I believe defined and shaped pop culture in the last ten years.

In case you missed it, click here to read my first five.

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  1. LGBTQI Representation – The 2010s was a very successful decade for LGBTQI representation, with significant strides being made in the media portrayal of various members of the community. It was a particularly significant decade for transgender representation in mainstream media and pop culture. We saw the breakout of various transgender actors/actresses and activists, including Laverne Cox, Jazz Jennings, Janet Mock and more; as well as the first mainstream television show featuring a core cast of transgender actors, i.e. Pose. The decade also saw a significant rise in the representation of people of color of the LGTBQI community. Per GLAAD’s 2018 annual diversity report, it was found that for the first time ever, LGBTQI people of color actually outnumbered white LGBTQI characters across various entertainment and media shows. Moonlight, a film featuring the story a young gay black man, won Best Picture at the Academy Awards, in 2017. There is still a long way to go but very important steps were made in terms of members of the LGBTQI community seeing themselves represented in mainstream media.

 

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  1. The Reign of Queen Bey – When the decade started, we were still recovering from the reign of Sasha Fierce and all likely still doing the Single Ladies dance. The world was pumped and ready for what Queen Bey was going to deliver next. And then came 4. Now don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t a bad album. In fact, it was actually a very good album. But it wasn’t exactly what the world had come to expect from Beyonce. And so the album did merely okay, with the lead single Girls (Who Runs the World), a pale shadow of the success of Single Ladies. However, what many did not yet realize, is that 4 was only the warm-up act for what was to come. The 2010s Beyonce was no longer the young woman from Destiny’s Child. She was now a wife and in early 2012, became a mom. And on New Year’s Eve, 2013, the world got to hear just how much she’d grown into a more sexually confident, bold and aggressive woman, with the release of the self-titled, Beyonce album. With no warning, the pop culture universe went into mass Beyonce meltdown when just before the clock struck midnight in 2014, Queen Bey unleashed her boldest album to date. And then came Lemonade in 2016. Where the Beyonce album was intimate on a sexual and passionate level, Lemonade brought us into the singer’s life on a deeply personal level she’d never shared before. It was angry, heartbreaking, aggressive, inspiring and hopeful. As the decade comes to a close, the cult of Beyonce shows no signs of slowing down. Bow down, indeed.

 

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  1. Marvel Dominates – It all began with a little film called Iron Man, in 2008. A lot was riding on the success or failure of the film, as it was the first major motion picture produced by Marvel Studios. Up to this point, while many of Stan Lee’s legendary Marvel characters had been immortalized on film, most notably Spiderman, they had all been produced and owned by various other motion picture studios. Any fears were soon squelched, as the film soared at the box office, grossing over $500 million worldwide, proving to be a critical as well as commercial success. By the start of the decade, Marvel Studios had followed up the success of Iron Man with the releases of The Incredible Hulk and the equally successful Iron Man 2. That was only the beginning and a mere morsel of what was to come. Marvel would go on to dominate the box office throughout the 2010s, releasing a total of 20 films, including the critical and commercial blockbusters Black Panther and Avengers: Endgame. And the studio’s reign on the box office shows no sign of slowing down, heading into the 2020s, having just announced the cast and films for Phase Four of the franchise’s legacy.

 

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  1. Taylor Swift – Whether you love her or hate her, it’s hard to deny the formidable force that was Taylor Swift in the 2010s. Whether it was breaking records on the music charts, selling out stadiums around the world, speculation, and gossip about her love life or feuds with Kimye and Scooter Braun, Ms. Swift was hard to escape this past decade. 2010 started with Swift still riding high on the success of her Grammy Award-winning album Fearless. Speak Now, her third full-length studio album, would soon follow later that year, though not to the same level of success as Fearless. It would also be the last of Swift’s albums to be considered “country”. 2012’s Red was critically considered one of, if not her best work. However, it was 2014’s 1989 that introduced the music world to full-fledged Pop Queen Taylor Swift. Shedding all pretenses of being country, Swift wholly embraced her new pop persona, complete with the sounds of legendary pop music producer, Max Martin. 1989 would grant Swift her biggest selling album to date and her second Album of the Year win at the Grammy Awards (*cough, Kendrick was robbed, cough*). It was and currently still is, the highest commercial and critical point of her career. Of course, you know what they say, the higher you reach, the greater the fall. And while Swift is still seeing strong success with her music, some incredible personal woes followed the success of 1989. It started with her breakup with Calvin Harris, which was soon followed by an inescapable whirlwind romance with Tom Hiddleston. A relationship that left many scratching their heads and mocking the two mercilessly. To no one’s surprise, the relationship died as quickly as it started. Then came a revival of the Taylor vs. Kanye saga, complete with Kim Kardashian exposing videos suggesting that Swift lied about having knowledge of Kanye’s controversial song Famous, prior to its release. #TaylorSwiftisOver quickly began trending all over social media and mayhem ensured. Swift disappeared from the public eye for almost a year and a half, returning with her album Reputation, for which she did virtually no media promotion, saving all her responses to the controversy, for the songs on the album. As the decade comes to a close, Swift is locked in a vicious legal battle with Scooter Braun and her former label manager, Scott Borchetta, over ownership of her Masters. Oh, and she also starred in Cats, which bombed spectacularly at the box office (if you want to see what true savagery is, I suggest reading some of the reviews for the film if you haven’t already). It’s not all bad though. She is ending the year with the number one selling album for the year, with Lover and she’s seemingly very happy in what is at this point her longest relationship, with British actor Joe Alwyn. As you can probably tell, this turned out to be the longest paragraph of this post. Because as I said at the start, love or hate her, it’s hard to deny the dominance Taylor Swift has had on pop culture in the last decade – be it professionally or personally.

 

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  1. MeToo/TimesUp Movement – It all started in October 2017, when The New York Times and The New Yorker, simultaneously published bombshell articles alleging that Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein had sexually harassed, abused and raped dozens of women over multiple decades. The article spread like wildfire and soon took on a whole new life when multiple women publicly came out to share their own stories of being harassed, abused or raped by Weinstein. One of the most famous names to come forward was Gwyneth Paltrow, who admitted that in her early days of working with Weinstein and his legendary studio Miramax, the former inappropriately came on to her. As more women came forward, other women felt more emboldened to share their stories and soon a wave of social activism against the systemic abuse of men in the industry against women, erupted. Actresses, writers, directors, crew members, etc. all came forward to share their stories of being harassed in some form or another or sometimes violently assaulted by fellow actors or male directors, producers, etc. Along with Weinstein, the movement saw the takedown of once-legendary entertainers like Bill Cosby, R. Kelly, news media mogul Roger Ailes and news anchors Bill O’Reilly and Matt Lauer, just to name a few. It is hard to say yet how much the industry has truly been changed for the better since the movement began. Some criticism has even been sparked, with a few voices declaring that it was less a movement and more a trend/fad that will disappear as quickly as it started. Only time will tell of course, but if nothing else, the situation allowed for some very critical conversations about the struggles of women in the industry, at the hands of powerful men and more importantly, some of those once very powerful men are now paying for their crimes.

And because this would have been way too long, had I also discussed some of my favorite films, albums, books, etc. of the past decade, I’ve decided to end this article by simply listing my top five for each category. My favorite songs were impossible to pin down to only five and so that ended up being ten.

Movies

  • Spotlight
  • The Social Network
  • The King’s Speech
  • Moonlight
  • Inside Out

Music

  • 25 – Adele
  • The Truth About Love – P!nk
  • Recovery – Eminem
  • Lemonade – Beyonce
  • To Pimp a Butterfly – Kendrick Lamar

Books

  • All the Bright Places by Jennifer Niven
  • Challenger Deep by Neal Shusterman
  • More Happy Than Not by Adam Silvera
  • The Sense of an Ending by Julian Barnes
  • Big Little Lies by Liane Moriarty

Television Shows

  • Mr. Robot
  • The Crown
  • Hannibal
  • Stranger Things
  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Songs

  • Love the Way You Lie – Eminem feat. Rihanna
  • Someone Like You – Adele
  • Sorry – Beyonce
  • The Blacker the Berry – Kendrick Lamar
  • Dancing on My Own – Robyn
  • Fire Away – Chris Stapleton
  • Raise Your Glass – P!nk
  • Happier – Ed Sheeran
  • Young & Beautiful – Lana del Ray
  • Chandelier – Sia

Design of a Decade – 10 Biggest Pop Culture Trends/Moments of the 2010s (Part 1)

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The 21st Century is officially no longer a teenager. And unless you were born in 2000, right about this time, you’re probably starting to feel a little (or in some cases a lot) old. Trust me, I get it. But existential crises about getting older aside, the past decade was a pretty fascinating one for the world of pop culture.

We saw streaming services take over the world, female artists from Beyonce to Adele to Taylor Swift, dominate the musical space, the LGBTQI community had more representation than ever before, reboot was the name of the game (for a while at least. Thankfully that might be changing), two Princes officially grew up and a wave of feminist activism took over Hollywood.

Without further ado, here are some of the biggest pop culture moments and trends of the 2010s. And it should go without saying that this is obviously by no means a comprehensive list. Because as always, I’m sure there are a number of other events, individuals, etc. that one could name-check.

However, in terms of cultural impact and mainstream attention, these were some of the biggest in my opinion. And because this understandably got a little long, I’ve decided to break the article up into two separate blog posts. Here are the first five of my top ten pop culture moments/trends of the 2010s.

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  1. Streaming Takes Over Music, Television (And Well the World at This Point) – RIP Blockbuster. The end officially came in 2013, but let’s face it, the once video store giant had pretty much been on life support for a few years by that point, thanks to a little streaming service called Netflix. The rise of Netflix and the fall of Blockbuster was only a snippet of things to come. Streaming services soon took over all of our lives and changed the way we watched movies, television shows and listened to music. Apple’s recent decision to end iTunes and switch only to its streaming platform Apple Music cemented the cultural shift in how we consume entertainment today. As we head into the 2020s, entertainment streaming shows no sign of slowing down. Not with the plethora of streaming services now available.

 

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  1. Everything Old is New Again – As the saying goes; the more things change, the more things seem to stay the same. Because while streaming was taking over entertainment and pop culture, an odd trend was also taking off, i.e. the reboot/revival. The 2010s saw a number of long canceled television shows and movies of the past either remade and/or brought back for a second life. It’s hard to say what specifically sparked this trend, what one moment or specific show that lit the fuse but suffice to say, for a time, it seemed like the mantra of the 2010s was what was old is now new again. That said, there are some signs that the trend may be waning – the Murphy Brown reboot died as quickly as it came, Will & Grace is on its way out (again) and Fuller House is wrapping up its run on Netflix. If you read my previous blog post on the topic, you’d know that unsurprisingly, I can’t say I’ll be too upset if this trend remains in the 2010s. Although just I wrote and posted this blog, I found out that a Mad About You reboot has been officially greenlit. Yea…

 

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  1. The Meteoric Rise, Fall and Comeback of Lady Gaga – 2010 was the year Lady Gaga gave us the Meat Dress. Although her rise truly began in 2008, when The Fame was officially released, it was the start of the 2010s that saw this fame exulted into something almost otherworldly. The cult of Gaga was at its peak at the start of the decade and the subsequent release of Born This Way in 2011, would further cement this, giving her the biggest first-week sales of her career. However, it was not too long after that the cracks began to show. Many of the album’s subsequent singles surprisingly stalled on the charts. And then came Artpop, where things quickly took a nosedive. The album got mixed reviews, the first single Applause died as quickly as it rose and the first week sales for the album was a mere 258,000 copies, a significant decline from the first week’s numbers for Born This Way. The snark and whispers of “flash in the pan” began and meanwhile, some of Gaga’s behavior became increasingly erratic. However, by late 2017, things began to take a positive turn, starting with a Golden Globe-winning performance on American Horror Story, followed by a well-lauded Superbowl Halftime show performance. However, it was this past year that saw the complete return of Gaga to the top of the pop culture conversation, with her Oscar-nominated performance in A Star is Born. The film garnered her mass critical acclaim and numerous awards for the song Shallow. All eyes are back on her and many are waiting to see what version of Lady Gaga we will meet in the 2020s.

 

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  1. Two Princes Grow Up – Whether or not you were old enough to have seen it live, chances are you’ve probably seen the images of two young boys, 15 and 12, somberly walking in a procession, following the casket holding their mother’s body. This was one of the most indelible images of the 1990s. Those two young boys eventually grew up and the 2010s saw them fully come into their own as adults, both settling down into marriage and fatherhood. I have previously stated my mixed feelings regarding the whole idea of Royalty. That in reality, I’m not exactly in love with the idea of a monarchy still existing in the 21st Century. Especially one that we are all well aware of is rooted deeply in classicism and the ugly history of colonialism. That said, on a pure entertainment and pop culture level, it’s hard to ignore the global interest and impact there was when first Prince William married Kate Middleton in 2011 and early last year, when Prince Harry married Meghan Markle. On both occasions, much of the world stopped and for a moment seemingly just appreciated the beauty and hope that most weddings seem to hold. I’d still not be particularly upset if the monarchy goes away in the next decade. Just saying…

 

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  1. 21 and 25 Never Sounded so Good – “Hello, it’s me”. And with these three words, Adele was back, with her follow-up to her global smash hit album, 21. When the 2010s started, Adele was a critically acclaimed singer/songwriter, with a core niche of fans. Hardcore music fans knew who she was, especially as she’d previously won the Grammy for Best New Artist. But she was hardly blowing up airwaves and her name wasn’t one that just rolled off the average individual’s tongue. That was until 2011 when a little album titled 21 was released. And then everyone knew Adele’s name. 21 would go on to become one of the biggest selling albums of all time, selling a whopping 10 million copies in the U.S. alone. By the time 25 was released, music lovers everywhere had been waiting with bated breath for whatever magic Adele would produce next. And Ms. Adkins did not disappoint. 25 went on to sell a whopping 3.3 million copies in its first week, smashing the previous record for first-week sales, which had been held by *NSync. At the close of the decade, Adele is currently the only artist, male or female, to win the Big Three Trifecta at the Grammy Awards – Album of the Year, Record of the Year and Song of the Year – twice. Speaking for myself, I cannot wait to see what Adele will bring for the 2020s.

 

Breaking Down the 2020 Oscar Race – The Sequel

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And now it’s time to look at how the Best Director, Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor races may shape up, come Oscar time. In case you missed it, click here to read what I think of the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress races, based on the various nominations to this point.

Here’s a quick reminder of the nominees in the specific categories, for three of the major precursor Award Shows. Naturally, there is no Best Director category for SAG, as it only honors acting performances.

THE GOLDEN GLOBES

Best Director

  • Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
  • Sam Mendes – 1917
  • Todd Phillips – Joker
  • Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
  • Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

  • Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
  • Annette Bening – The Report
  • Laura Dern –  Marriage Story
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

Best Director

  • Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
  • Greta Gerwig – Little Women
  • Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
  • Sam Mendes – 1917
  • Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems
  • Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
  • Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
  • Florence Pugh – Little Women
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell
  • Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

Best Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

SAG AWARDS

Best Supporting Actress

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  • Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Best Supporting Actor

  • Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

And once again, it’s time to break down what this all means for these three categories, for this year’s Oscar race.

BEST DIRECTOR

Before I state who I believe are the locks at this point, I must first address the fact that once again, there is controversy around female directors being mostly shut out of the category. And at the center of this controversy once again, is Greta Gerwig, as she was a few years ago when she was not nominated for a Golden Globe for Ladybird. That year, Gerwig did eventually get the Oscar nod. I’m not so sure that’s going to be the case this year. Largely owing to the fact that I just don’t think Little Women is going to be the huge Award contender many predicted and expected it to be.

And full disclosure, despite the rave reviews, I have very little interest in the film because frankly, I don’t feel like we needed another adaptation of Little Women. And I wonder if some voters simply feel the same way that I do. That while I’m sure the individual acting performances were great and Gerwig’s direction was wonderful, is this film really bringing anything unique and exciting? Just my humble opinion of course.

So now let’s talk about the locks. At this point, it’s looking like the Director category may likely be a three-man race between Bong Joon Ho for Parasite, Martin Scorsese for The Irishman and Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. All three showed up for the Globes and the Critics Choice. Also, the various critics’ circle awards have been going to Joon Ho, with Scorsese a runner up for a few, while the National Board of Review awarded Tarantino with their Best Director award. Plus, all three films directed by these three individuals are consistently being nominated for Best Picture. Hard to bet against them with those odds.

The last two spots are where it gets tricky. Noah Baumbach directed one of the best films of the year if the critical reception is anything to go by. And he certainly seems a lock for the Screenwriting category, as well as three of the actors from the film being locks for various Acting categories.  And yet, at this point in time, he seems a long shot at best for a Best Director nod. He didn’t get a Globe nomination in the category and hasn’t won or been a runner up for any of the critics’ circle awards.

The other long shot in this category is Todd Phillips who directed one of the biggest blockbusters of the year, i.e. Joker. However, while he got a Globe nomination, he didn’t get one for the Critics Choice, and that’s with the category extended to include seven nominees. Also working against Phillips is that while Joaquin Phoenix’s performance in the film has been universally praised, the film itself got mixed reviews. Still, the overwhelming love for the film from the HFPA (it received Best Picture, Director, Actor and Score nods for the Golden Globes) may be a sign of things to come. And this may propel Phillips into that fifth spot.

The final potential nominee I must focus on is Sam Mendes for 1917. This is an odd one because, by all accounts, 1917 seems a possible lock for a Best Picture nomination and Mendes got the Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations for Best Director. He’s also a former Academy Award-winning Best Director, for American Beauty. So by all accounts, he should be considered a lock and yet it just feels like 1917 is merely a placeholder this Award season. A film to fill in slots but not one that’s being passionately discussed and celebrated. It almost feels like it’s sort of just there – as in an, “oh yeah 1917 was great”. And I can’t imagine it having much to talk about in terms of commercial success. So you almost have to wonder if this could hurt Mendes’ chances, to where he may be just gets forgotten by the voters. I don’t think so but anything’s possible.

So with all of this said, here are my tentative predictions at this point, for who I believe will get a Best Director nod, come Oscar morning.

  • Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
  • Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
  • Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Sam Mendes – 1917
  • Todd Phillips – Joker

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

At this point in time, the three obvious locks for the Supporting Actress category are Laura Dern for Marriage Story, Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers and Margot Robbie for Bombshell.  All three actresses were nominated for the Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globes. The last two spots are where it gets a little tricky. And as we well know, history has proven that the Supporting categories are often where things can go very crazy when it comes to the Oscars.

So who are the non-locks with the most potential to get a nomination come Oscar announcement morning? Top of the list, in my opinion, is Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell. Word is the film is a bit of a mixed bag for critics. However, Bates won the National Board of Review for Supporting Actress and got a Globe nomination. And it’s Kathy Bates – a legendary actor who is always amazing in everything she does. So you never want to bet against her.

Right on Kathy Bates’ heel with the most likely chance to get a nomination, is Florence Pugh for Little Women. Pugh won The Chicago Film Critics Award for Supporting Actress and got a Critics Choice nomination. So much like Bates, she has one critical circle award and nominated for only one of the major Award Show precursors.

And then there’s Nicole Kidman who suddenly popped up out of nowhere, earning a SAG nomination for Bombshell. Up ‘til that point, the Acting nods for Bombshell seemed to be all about Margot Robbie and Charlize Theron. And it’s hard to dismiss Kidman, based on how often she shows up in various award circles, year after year. Voters clearly love and respect her.

The final potential nominee is Zhao Shuzhen for The Farewell. She got a Critics Choice Award nomination and was runner up to Jennifer Lopez for The L.A. Film Critics Circle Award for Supporting Actress.

There is heavy talk of a potential double nomination for Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit in this category. And I guess it makes sense when you consider she got a Critics Choice and SAG nomination. Right now though, I don’t see it happening. I think it’s likelier we may see a surprise nominee like Jo Yeo-Jeong from Parasite. Especially if that film shows up big Oscar morning, as many are expecting it to. Think Marina de Tavira getting nominated seemingly out of nowhere, for Roma.

So here’s how I see things shaping up, at this moment in time. These predictions are of course more than likely to change the closer we get to the Oscar nomination announcement. Especially with this category, where really almost anything can happen.

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell
  • Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
  • Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Supporting Actor is far less complicated than Supporting Actress. At this point in time, there are four locks here – Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Al Pacino for The Irishman, Joe Pesci for The Irishman and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. So it’s down to a final spot.

SAG randomly threw in Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy but I don’t see that happening. This is to me Emily Blunt getting nominated (and winning) last year for Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place and Idris Elba being nominated (and winning) for Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation. Neither of them received an Oscar nomination. And my feeling is the same is likely to occur with Jamie Foxx.

The true potential long shots for this fifth and final spot are in my opinion, Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes, Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse and Song Kango Ho for Parasite. Anthony Hopkins seems the most likely option, having been nominated for The Critics Choice and The Golden Globes. The fact that The Two Popes is a strong contender to make it into the Best Picture category, should also help his chances.

Willem Dafoe is a much loved and respected actor. However, other than his nomination for The Critics Choice, he hasn’t shown up anywhere else and the film hasn’t exactly been a force in other categories. In fact, if Dafoe was to be nominated, it’d likely be the only one the film gets, except for maybe a technical category or two. So hard to see him getting in.

Song Kang Ho seems a long shot because outside of winning the L.A. Film Critics Circle Award for Supporting Actor, he hasn’t shown up at any of the major Award precursors. That said, Parasite did receive a SAG Ensemble Acting nomination, which recognizes all the actors in the film. As I noted above regarding the Supporting Actress category, depending on how strong the Parasite love is come Oscar morning, it’s very possible that Kang Ho gets in.

Here is how I see this possibly shaping up.

  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

And there you have it. I’m probably going to be dead wrong about some of these or likely change a bunch of them before Oscar nominations are announced. But this is how my gut tells me these categories are likely to shape up in a few weeks.

Breaking Down the 2020 Oscar Race

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At this time last year, all the talk regarding Award season was about A Star is Born, Green Book and whether or not Roma would become the first Foreign Language film and more importantly, the first Netflix film, to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

Well, we know what happened there and while debates were heated for the “who will win”, the nominations at least seemed all but sewn up. Not so this year. This week’s Golden Globe and SAG Award nomination announcements threw a giant wrench in a lot of people’s previously held predictions.

Here’s a refresher of the nominees for three of the big pre-Oscar ceremonies (The BAFTA Awards are important too but nominations won’t be announced until the New Year) – The Golden Globes, The Critics Choice Awards, and The SAG Awards.

THE GOLDEN GLOBES 

Best Picture – Drama 

  • The Irishman
  • Marriage Story
  • 1917
  • Joker
  • The Two Popes

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical 

  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Knives Out
  • Rocketman
  • Dolemite is My Name

Best Actor – Drama

  • Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
  • Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Best Actress – Drama 

  • Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renee Zellweger – Judy

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

  • Daniel Craig – Knives Out
  • Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit
  • Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Taron Egerton – Rocketman
  • Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical 

  • Awkwafina – The Farewell
  • Ana de Armas – Knives Out
  • Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette
  • Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
  • Emma Thompson – Late Night

 

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS 

Best Picture

  • 1917
  • Ford v. Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Joker
  • Little Women
  • Marriage Story
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
  • Uncut Gems

Best Actor 

  • Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
  • Robert De Niro – The Irishman
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Eddie Murphy –  Dolemite is My Name
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  • Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Best Actress

  • Awkwafina – The Farewell
  • Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us
  • Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renee Zellweger – Judy

SAG AWARDS 

Best Ensemble

  • Bombshell
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actress 

  • Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renee Zellweger –  Judy

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actor 

  • Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Taron Egerton – Rocketman
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Now let’s discuss what the hell these nominations tell us about what is going on with this year’s Oscar race.

 

BEST PICTURE

There are quite a few locks in this category. The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and possibly JoJo Rabbit, seem like sure bets at this point. I want to tentatively say, especially with the fact that the Academy can now nominate up to 10 films, that Parasite, which is certain to win Best Foreign Language Film, may also be a potential lock.

Especially since while it didn’t get any individual acting nominations at SAG, it did receive an Ensemble nomination, which is pretty significant. The film also received a Best Picture nomination for the Critics Choice and of course, The Globes do not allow a Foreign Language film nominee into the Best Picture category, which likely explains its exclusion in the Best Picture – Drama category. So more than likely Parasite is in.

The question marks here are Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell, The Two Popes and 1917. 1917 and Joker both got a Critics Choice and Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, whereas Bombshell, Ford v. Ferrari and The Two Popes only show up for one of the three Awards Shows. Bombshell only received an Ensemble nomination for SAG, Ford v Ferrari only got a Critics Choice nod and The Two Popes only got a Golden Globe nod.

So with all that said, if I had to make a prediction at this point in time for Best Picture for the 2020 Academy Awards, I would go with the following:

  • The Irishman
  • Marriage Story
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Parasite
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • 1917
  • Ford v. Ferrari
  • Joker
  • Bombshell

I know the Academy can nominate up to ten films, but I don’t think they will. And if they limit to eight like they did last year, my bet is on either Ford v Ferrari or Bombshell not getting in.

BEST ACTOR

At this point, the solid locks for Best Actor appear to be Adam Driver for Marriage Story and Joaquin Phoenix for Joker. A week or so ago, one might have assumed Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory would have been considered a lock. But then SAG nominations happened, where he did not get into the Lead Actor category. However, his getting in for the Globes does help his chances a bit, except of course that Globes separate Drama and Comedy, which allows for more room to celebrate more performances.

Leonardo DiCaprio is shaping up to be a likely suspect in this category. The Award Season love for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems to be pretty strong and it is Leo DiCaprio, who is beloved and very well-respected in the industry. And he’s now gotten the Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nod. So hard to bet against him.

So the wildcards at this point are Robert DeNiro for The Irishman, Taron Egerton for Rocketman; Antonio Banderas, Christian Bale for Ford v Ferrari and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems.

Adam Sandler is out in my opinion. This is Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, Part 2. Hawke cleaned up with the Critics last year and yet was completely snubbed by the Globes, SAG and eventually the Oscars. I see the same happening with Adam Sandler. Even with the Comedy and Drama split, he still missed out on the Globes and of course the SAG. He got Critics Choice but so did Hawke last year.

Antonio Banderas and Christian Bale are strong contenders. Banderas has won many precursor awards and he got in with the Globes and the Critics. Bale, on the other hand, missed out on the Critics but got the Globe and the SAG nomination. At this point, De Niro seems like a massive long shot, having missed out on the Globes and The SAG.

But I still can’t shake the feeling that the Academy is not going to ignore such a legendary actor, especially if The Irishman cleans up with Oscar nods, as it’s expected to. As for Egerton, honestly, I underestimated his even being in the conversation at this point. But that SAG nom was huge. Still, he didn’t get a Critics nod, even with seven spots up for grabs. I can’t see an Oscar nod happening for him. At this point, my tentative prediction for how the Best Actor category will shape up, are as follows.

  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
  • Robert De Niro – The Irishman

BEST ACTRESS

So the locks in this category are obviously Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story and Renee Zellweger for Judy. And there are three spots all over the place.

Despite the film Harriet getting very mixed reviews, Cynthia Erivo seems to be making a very solid push to getting her first Oscar nomination. She must have spoken with Rami Malek, who proved last year that one’s film getting mixed reviews is no deterrent to winning a leading performance, Oscar. A few months ago, many predicted that there would possibly be a battle between Erivo and Lupita Nyong’o for a spot in the Lead Actress category. If that is the case, Erivo may have the slight edge, having bested Nyong’o for the Globe nod in Best Actress (Drama).

However, they are both nominated for the Critics Choice and The SAG. So it’s more than likely that rather than an either/or as some experts were predicting, they may both get in for Lead Actress. Charlize Theron seems a likely suspect for a fifth spot, scoring nods for the Globes, Critics Choice and The SAG, for her performance in Bombshell. And being a former Lead Actress Oscar winner could further help her campaign to get into one of the five slots.

At this point, the long shots for this category are Saoirse Ronan for Little Women and Awkwafina for The Farewell. Both got in for The Globes and The Critics Choice but were left out for The SAG. So hard to say if either has a shot of sneaking into one of these Lead Actress spots. Ronan may seem the likelier option, just based on her past history as a two-time Lead Actress nominee. That said, Little Women doesn’t seem to be performing as well at the major Award shows, as many expected and some even predicted.

So with that said, here are my tentative predictions for the possible Best Actress nominees, come Oscar night, 2020.

  • Renee Zellweger – Judy
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us
  • Awkwafina – The Farewell

Clearly, I had a lot to say here, so look out for my next post, when I’ll break down the Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director Races.