We’re a few games into the Penguins’ 2025-26 season, and already, their vibes feel way more positive than they’ve felt the past few seasons. Anecdotally, just talking to friends, family members, and my beloved fellow broken-brained online Pens constituency, I definitely sense an excitement around them and an intrigue that hasn’t been present for some time.

Why is that? Sure, they have a new coach, and that’s a significant event for a Pittsburgh franchise. But many of the same faces are still here — Jarry, Karlsson, Letang, both wingers we assumed would get traded, the face of Ryan Graves’ cap hit — and I don’t think even the most rabid optimist thinks they’ll be anything more than a bubble playoff team even if everything breaks perfectly. They have a couple new young players, but they’re still the 7th oldest team in the NHL, and they have a middling (though improved) prospect pipeline. By all accounts, they’re in the earliest stages of a rebuild, with farewell tours looming for each member of the Big Three and a new warmed-over Crosby trade rumor sweated out onto the internet daily. So what about them is so exciting?

Josh Yohe correctly surmised in his season-opening column that a certain “staleness” around the team was gone, and I think that’s a big part of it. But after trying to put my finger onto what felt so different about this offseason, preseason, and opening week of games versus previous years, I think there’s one unifying theme that ties it all together: The Penguins are operating like a team that doesn’t “have” to do things any particular way.

Every decision the Penguins have made in the past year or so feels like it’s been deliberate, with no concern for optics, PR, or for “how things are usually done.” This has given the franchise both a sense of unpredictability and a sense that, for better or worse, everything they’re doing is a conscious decision, not them “going through the motions” or ticking off boxes on some “how to do a rebuild” instruction manual.

There are dozens of examples. Last season, only two players from the 2024 Draft made their teams’ opening night rosters: Macklin Celebrini (the #1 overall pick) and the Flyers’ Jett Luchanko, who was sent back to Juniors after 4 games. The Penguins turned some heads when they drafted the 5’11” Ben Kindel slightly above his projected draft slot this Summer, then went against convention again to put Kindel on their opening night roster (one of only 5 such players this year,) feeling he’d earned it in camp. The Sharks healthy-scratched #2 overall pick Michael Misa in their opener. Dan Muse was still giving Kindel shifts late in a 1-0 game at Madison Square Garden in their opener. Would Mike Sullivan have done that? Would any NHL coach have done that?

The Pens also put Harrison Brunicke, the 19-year-old former 2nd round pick, on the opening night roster. It’s possible Brunicke and Kindel get sent back to Juniors, but given how the Penguins have handled them so far, we can be pretty confident that if they do get sent back, it’ll be because the Penguins feel that’s what’s best for their development, not because they’re overly concerned about burning a year of their entry-level contracts or because they’re succumbing to the peer pressure of most other teams automatically assigning their 18-year-olds to other leagues.

We assumed Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs would be the Pens’ two rostered goalies out of training camp, but when opening night came, Silovs got the opening night start over Jarry for a road game at Madison Square Garden. There was no sense that Jarry “had” to play because he was the veteran and de-facto “starter.” There was also no apparent sense that they had to start Jarry to begin “building up his trade value.” Dan Muse evidently just thought Silovs played better in camp, gave him the opening night start, and he delivered a shutout on the road.

We assumed the Pens would trade some combination of Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell, and Bryan Rust between last trade deadline and the start of this season. Trading Karlsson is complicated, but they surely received offers for Rakell and Rust, and haven’t taken them. The offers were likely not great, but in a default “rebuild,” most teams trade off their vets for whatever they can get so they can accelerate their badness and race to the bottom of the standings. The Pens will still probably trade some of those guys, but again, given how they’ve operated so far, we know that if they do, it’ll be a deliberate decision, not just some “rebuild autopilot” situation where Kyle Dubas takes whatever he can get to absolve himself of having to “try” for the next three years because that’s how bottom-out rebuilds work.

Many rebuilding teams in the Pens’ position would have likely put their veteran pending free agent players in prominent lineup spots to juice their stats and potentially trade them later in the year. Instead, the Pens waived Danton Heinen and benched Matt Dumba and Connor Clifton for the first two games, and I don’t imagine Kevin Hayes will see a ton of ice time when he’s healthy (though I could be wrong.) They could’ve used Heinen and Dumba like they used Anthony Beauvillier and Matt Grzelcyk last year and tried to flip them at the deadline (and again, still might,) but “building up veterans’ value for a rebuild” has taken a backseat to Dan Muse and Kyle Dubas simply rostering the guys who have played the best so far.

On top of firing Mike Sullivan, the Penguins’ Draft this Summer was one of the most prominent signals that this franchise-wide shift had taken place. I wrote at the time about how whether or not the Pens’ strategy works out, it was very clear on draft day that they weren’t concerned with the optics of who they drafted or how they used their picks. They could’ve easily taken the next two consensus “best guys” available with their two 1sts, gotten an ‘A’ grade from every draft recap, and if those players hadn’t worked out, it wouldn’t have seemed like their fault, because everyone else would’ve been wrong too. Instead, they used their first pick on Kindel, then traded their other 1st for two more 1sts, then traded a 2nd to upgrade one of those 1sts, then took two other players marginally ahead of their consensus draft positions — a complicated strategy that puts more of a magnifying glass on their picks if they don’t pan out. In the later rounds, they didn’t use a pick on Pittsburgh native L.J. Mooney, which would’ve netted them a free feelgood story and wouldn’t have been a reach. Again, nothing they did appeared to show any concern for “conventional wisdom” or for how it would be perceived by fans or draft experts. We won’t know if their strategy actually worked for years — though one of their 5th rounders already has 8 goals in 8 games in the OHL — but when a team is that fearless about sticking to a certain plan that they believe in, it gets your attention as a Penguins fan.

I think Pittsburgh sports fans are, by and large, shrewd enough to recognize and accept when a team is entering into a badly-needed rebuild. I also think Pittsburgh fans are responsive to a front office that’s making bold, creative moves — firing a Hall of Fame coach, bucking draft conventions, and acquiring assets through every avenue available — and a coach who isn’t afraid to shake up the roster and to play guys regardless of their age or contract status (with the GM’s backing.) All of these elements in tandem have made the current Penguins suddenly intriguing and unpredictable in a way that other recent iterations haven’t been, even if the team does end up sucking.

The days when you could confidently, dismissively say “you just KNOW the Penguins are going to [something we’re sick of]” are gone. We have no idea what they’re going to do! We don’t know how well they’ll play this season, we don’t know who they’ll trade, we don’t know what prospects we’ll see, and we don’t know what they’ll do at the deadline or next offseason. We don’t even know what the future of the Big Three is. We’re in completely uncharted waters next to those old timey sea monsters on old nautical maps.

What we do know is that whatever the Pens end up deciding to do, it’ll be their choice, not some short-term gambit to appease impatient fans or to align with how other teams “usually” approach rebuilds. The front office has an unwavering confidence in itself, for better or for worse, and it’s earned the respect and intrigue of a fanbase that’s clearly starved for anything different.

Plus we all know this whole “we’re not tanking” mentality is going to karmically earn them the McKenna lottery ball, so, y’know, we’re fine with it. But let’s keep that part to ourselves.

With Penguins training camp kicking back up this week, let’s get back into the spirit of hockey season by looking back at the Penguins’ Summer and what it tells us about the season ahead:

1. The Markets For Rust, Rakell, And Karlsson Were Underwhelming

The Penguins have roughly 430 forwards currently in camp, Kyle Dubas has repeatedly talked about young players pushing for jobs and the need to not “rush” the team’s rebuild. Everything the Pens have done since the Jake Guentzel trade 18 months ago indicate the Penguins are doing an all-out rebuild. So why is training camp opening with Erik Karlsson (35), Bryan Rust (33), and Rickard Rakell (32) all still on the roster?

The only explanation I can imagine is that there hasn’t been anywhere near the market for those players as Dubas (and salivating trade-deadline Pens fans) had hoped.

In Karlsson’s case, it’s hard to even pick a team he’d fit on right now. The Pens would have to trade him to a win-now contender who he’d willingly waive his no-trade clause for, and who could absorb at least a $5 million cap hit for the next two seasons, and is willing to trade assets to do so. Florida, Dallas, Tampa, and Vegas might have been fits, but none of them have the cap space. Toronto only has around $2 million in cap space and it’s hard to imagine that coach or fanbase dealing with Karlsson’s “unique” style of play for more than like half a game. Karlsson might entertain a return to Ottawa, but they’re cap-strapped too. Also, we just watched Florida win two Cups with a defensively-stifling team that was extremely physical. Does Karlsson check either of those boxes?

In the case of Rust and Rakell, I’m sure many teams would like to add either player and could easily fit their cap hits in this rising-cap environment, but in an offseason where there were whispers that players like Jason Robertson, Jordan Kyrou, and now maybe even Mason McTavish and Kirill Kaprizov could be available, I can’t imagine many teams have Rust or Rakell as their #1 “all-in” trade target. Teams always need centers, D, or elite talent; as we’ve seen from past trade deadlines, good complimentary wingers usually don’t fetch huge returns (except literally only Mikael Granlund for some reason.)

I think what will happen is, Karlsson will play in the Olympics for Sweden and the Pens will really try to parlay the buzz from how “he looked totally rejuvenated in those games” like he allegedly did in the Four Nations tourney into a deadline trade to a team who can absorb the hit for one additional year, and I think the Pens will eat 50% of the cap hit and/or take a contract back to get an asset.

In the case of Rust and Rakell, there are a lot of up-and-coming teams with plenty of picks & prospects hoping to make a leap forward this season — which is why I thought there’d be a market for them this Summer — but at this point, those teams at least want to see how their current rosters play out before making any more big moves. Some of those teams will end up in contention, though, and when we get closer to the deadline, they’ll have additional pressure on them to add to the roster. I could see one or both of players getting traded to someone like Minnesota, Detroit, Buffalo, Anaheim, Columbus, Utah, or Montreal.

2. The Pens Can’t Bank On Using Their Cap Space To Expedite The Rebuild

Even after not dumping any vets this offseason, the Penguins still have $12.9 million in cap space right now, and more than $50 million projected for next season. In the past, they could’ve used that space to take on other teams’ bad contracts and pick up some free draft picks, then potentially double-dip by re-trading those players at the deadline. The Pens got a 2nd rounder for taking Kevin Hayes’ $3.5 mil hit last year and a 3rd rounder for taking Cody Glass’s $2.5 mil (and another 3rd for re-trading him.)

This offseason, however, nearly every team had more cap space than they could even use, so players with high cap hits who might’ve been viewed as negative assets in the flat cap environment were getting traded for actual returns. Evander Kane ($5.1 mil) got traded for a 4th round pick, Viktor Arvidsson ($4 mil) got traded for a 5th round pick, Andrei Burakovsky ($5.5 mil x 2 years) got traded with no sweetener attached, Ivan Fedotov ($3.375 mil) got traded for a 6th round pick, and so on. In the past, teams would’ve had to include an asset with any of these guys just to get teams to take them.

The Penguins did shrewdly pick up a 2028 2nd rounder for taking on Matt Dumba’s $3.75 mil cap hit from Dallas, but otherwise, there were virtually zero instances where teams used their open cap space to acquire picks for taking on contracts. The cap is set to increase again for the next two years. Given the way this offseason went, the Penguins can’t count on “taking on contracts for picks” being a significant part of their rebuild strategy.

3. The Crosby Rumors Have Some Legs And Aren’t Going Away

Sidney Crosby trade rumors were always going to be a part of the season, particularly if the Pens droop down towards the bottom of the standings then Crosby & Dubas have to answer questions in road press conferences for months (and at the Olympics.) But now, with Crosby’s own agent chiming in, we had our first indication (however slight) of someone in Crosby’s camp actually floating the idea of him playing elsewhere:

“I mean, I’m answering something that … let’s put it this way, it’s always a possibility, you know?” Brisson said. “It’s been three years they haven’t made the playoffs. It all depends on how Sid is going to be and how the team is going to do. I maintain the same position that I do believe that he should be playing playoff hockey every year. In my opinion.”

The reality is, as much as Crosby has said he loves it in Pittsburgh and he doesn’t want to be traded, and as much as we can all yell at anyone online who dares to bring up the idea of Crosby ever being traded, he’s also 38 years old and the Penguins are in the very early stages of a full-on rebuild, and Kyle Dubas has repeatedly said he doesn’t want to take shortcuts to speed up the team’s timeline. Frankly, it doesn’t make sense for Crosby to be playing on this current iteration of the Pens.

Yes, Crosby can imbue good work habits into the younger players, and yes, it’d be unimaginable to see him wearing any other team’s jersey, but the reason all this speculation persists — besides the internet’s ever-insatiable desire to manufacture content — is because trading Crosby does make sense for all parties involved from a coldly rational perspective.

I’m not rooting for it to happen, but I am going to feel pretty silly deep down when I’m yelling “Crosby’s not going ANYWHERE you DIPSHIT” at people in March while Crosby’s skating with Ville Koivunen and Danton Heinen on a 13th place team.

4. Filip Larsson Is Alive

All offseason, I struggled to find any updates on the status of Filip Larsson, the former Swedish pro goaltender who the Pens signed to a two-year deal a season ago. He put up respectable AHL numbers — .910 SV% in 26 games with Wilkes-Barre, slightly lower than Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov’s but over more games — but even when the Pens traded away Alex Nedeljkovic (hopefully that’s the last time I have to go to HockeyReference and copy his last name and paste it), they backfilled him with 23-year-old Canucks backup goalie Arturs Silovs.

With Silovs being waiver-eligible, the Pens’ goaltending tandems are probably set, barring injury: Tristan Jarry and Silovs in the NHL, and Sergei Murashov & Joel Blomqvist in the AHL. Where does that leave Larsson?

Would the Pens carry 3 goalies in the NHL? Would everyone get enough work if they have 3 goalies in the AHL? A 27-year-old backup goalie shouldn’t be one of the Pens’ bigger priorities right now, but I did find it odd how rarely he was mentioned this offseason. Backup goalies with sparse track records have almost no trade value, but teams are constantly looking for low-salary 3rd and 4th goalies over the course of seasons when injuries mount, and I could see Larsson having some utility.

Anyway, Larsson is indeed alive and playing in camp. I’m interested to see where he ends up.

5. The Pens Might Fill The Waiver Wire This Season

Usually, coming out of camp, teams tend to lean towards keeping waiver-eligible NHLers over waiver-exempt “tweener” players so they don’t risk losing players unnecessarily and so that they’ll have enough bodies in the NHL and AHL to make it through the injury churn of a long season. In the Pens’ case, though, their training camp roster right now is packed with veteran players who probably wouldn’t even get claimed off waivers. That fact, coupled with Dubas’ comments about younger players pushing for jobs and the Pens’ overall obvious need for a youth movement could lead to the Pens filling the waiver wire with cut forwards at the end of training camp.

Even for a rebuilding team, there are some positives to keeping low-upside veterans: every team needs bodies over the course of a season, young players may not be ready to play in the NHL full time, you might prefer young players to play top line minutes in Wilkes-Barre than 4th line minutes in the NHL, and you don’t want an injury plague to leave you thin in the NHL and AHL. For those reasons, it’s possible the Pens might do a pretty standard “keep mostly vets, call up younger players as the season goes along” approach regarding who makes the team out of camp. But if they choose to rip the band-aid off, I wouldn’t be shocked to see players like Noel Acciari, Kevin Hayes, Ryan Graves, Connor Dewar, Connor Clifton, Danton Heinen, or Matt Dumba on waivers coming out of camp or soon after.

In the meantime, though, hockey’s back!! I can’t wait to overrate Avery Hayes based on seeing him finish a 2-on-1 in a wobbly twitter video of a breakout drill.

The Penguins are clearly in a rebuild-adjacent holding pattern for a second straight season, with general manager Kyle Dubas stockpiling future assets, avoiding any long-term financial commitments, and making their veterans available for trade. They also have a bunch of contracts expiring after this season, and are currently on track to have over $52 million in cap space in the 2026-27 season, and that’s before trading any of Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, or Erik Karlsson. They also have no major restricted free agents they need to pay long-term.

Looking at the Pens’ cap space for next Summer, there’s been a growing sentiment that the Pens are spending one more year in semi-tank mode, then will be poised to expedite the rebuild next offseason when they have a ton of money at their disposal. I don’t think that’s the case. After what we’ve seen from this offseason, I don’t think the Pens’ sudden windfall of cap space is going to speed up their rebuild in any meaningful way. Here’s why:

1. Every team has cap space

Right now, with free agency mostly over, the Penguins are one of thirteen NHL franchises that still has more than $10 million in cap space remaining this year. That number will dwindle when some teams extend their RFAs, but still, right now, teams are gaining cap space faster than they can even spend it.

Next year, with the cap going up even more, this will continue to be the case. Obviously, it’s better to have lots of cap space than not when you’re trying to improve your team, but the Pens’ massive-sounding “$52 million” number doesn’t give them some huge leg up on most of the rest of the league.

As the cap rises to $113 million in over next two seasons, the Pens will merely be one of many teams with a boatload of cap space, rather than some team uniquely positioned to take advantage of capped-out teams like they might have been during the flat-cap years.

2. Cap space isn’t as valuable as it once was

Because so many teams have cap space, the days of teams trading 2nd round picks to move Kevin Hayes’ $3.5 million or a 3rd to move Cody Glass’ $2.5 million are mostly over. Decent players with too-high cap hits were being traded this offseason for actual draft picks, rather than teams needing to include draft picks just to dump them: Vancouver traded for Evander Kane’s $5.1 mil, Chicago traded for Andrei Burakovsky’s 2 x $5.5 mil, Nashville traded for Erik Haula’s $3.1 mil, and so on.

The Pens’ trade for Matt Dumba was the only cap dump this offseason so far where a team had to include a draft pick sweetener to make it happen. Even then, the 2nd rounder the Pens got back isn’t until 2028, and the Pens included a serviceable depth D in Vladislav Kolyachonok. It’s still a sensible trade for a rebuilding team like the Pens, but these opportunities are becoming rarer and rarer.

We might eventually get back to a place where teams are so capped out that they’re desperate to include draft picks to dump guys, but right now, most teams need players more than they need cap space, and they’ve been all too willing to take on fine-but-overpaid players like Burakovsky. The Pens might be able to swing another Dumba style deal, but I don’t think they’re going to get anything huge back for taking on contracts anytime soon, and certainly not in any way that would meaningfully speed up the rebuild.

3. Very few impact free agents actually made it to the market

Mitch Marner forced his way to Vegas and signed an 8-year extension. Vladislav Gavrikov seemingly had his mind set on New York from day one. Brock Boeser re-signed in Vancouver. Ivan Provorov re-signed in Columbus. Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and Aaron Ekblad all re-signed in Florida.

Basically none of the top unrestricted free agents this year made it into an actual “bidding war” besides Nikloaj Ehlers, who ended up having like 24 teams trying to sign him before eventually picking Carolina for 6 years x $8.5 million.

Kyle Dubas has already said that July 1st isn’t a great day to find value. That’s even more true now with so many teams extending their own free agents, then the couple free agents that do hit the market having basically every contender vie for their services. Even if the Penguins did decide to go on some free agent “splurge” next offseason — which already would be a questionable course of action — they probably couldn’t even sign that many interesting players.

Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman even said as much: “We didn’t even get a chance to talk to those guys [the top free agents]. They all signed with their clubs or were traded before free agency. Not much we can do about that.” The Red Wings are still sitting on $12 million in cap space they tried to spend and couldn’t.

4. The cost to trade for good restricted free agents is astronomical

With the Pens likely to forego the unrestricted free agent route, one way they could make a “splash” next offseason is by targeting a high profile RFA: someone who’s younger than the typical UFA, has more upside, and fits their timeline better.

But again, look at the RFAs that did get dealt this offseason so far: Noah Dobson got traded to Montreal for two mid-first round picks that turned into Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson, two very high quality prospects. K’Andre Miller got traded to Carolina for a conditional 1st, a 2nd, and Scott Morrow, one of Carolina’s top prospects. J.J. Peterka forced his way out of Buffalo and still got traded for Michael Kesselring, a 25-year-old defenseman, and Josh Doan, a 23-year-old former 2nd round winger.

It’s easy to look at the list of potential RFAs next season and dream: Jason Robertson, Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, Thomas Harley, and more (not even counting Connor Bedard who I have to think is a million percent unavailable.) As we’ve said, though, teams like Utah and Columbus are gonna have more than enough cap space to re-sign their guys, and if someone like Dallas does for some reason decide they want to deal either Robertson or Harley, there’ll be 20 teams lining up to trade for them. Do we really think the Pens are in a position to outbid everyone else for a player like that next offseason? They just started rebuilding — are they really going to start trading multiple 1sts and 2nds at a time when they could conceivably finish in the bottom 5 of the league?

Even if the Pens do decide to pursue a high-profile RFA, cap space won’t be the issue. There’ll be more than enough teams in the league willing to give any of these RFAs whatever they want. It’ll come down to which team can give up the best assets in a trade, and I don’t think the Pens are in a great spot to be outbidding so many other win-now teams who have way more picks & prospects than they do as soon as next season.

Also, can we drop the “offer sheet” talk? They almost never happen and it’d make no sense for the Pens to give up their own 1st rounder when they’re still likely a lottery team.

5. Do the Pens have much to offer besides money?

Next year’s free agent class looks really impressive right now. I assume less than half of those names will still be available come next July, but for the sake of argument, say some high profile free agents like Jack Eichel or Kirill Kaprizov do make it to the market… why would they sign with Pittsburgh?

Yes, the Penguins could offer them a max contract, but so could like 15 other teams in the league. Players have also shown again and again that they want to play in places where they can win, or where they have a specific connection, or they like the lifestyle, or they want a no-tax state. Maybe someone really wants to play with Sidney Crosby, but is playing with 40-year-old Crosby for the beginning of a 7 year contract really gonna be a tiebreaking draw for most of these guys? Also, after those top couple names, would going big on Martin Necas or Adrian Kempe even move the needle for the 2026-27 Pens?

Overall, the Pens are doing the right thing by stockpiling futures and being as creative and proactive as possible in reshaping their current roster. But given how this past offseason played out, and with the cap set to increase a lot for two more seasons, I don’t think the Penguins’ oft-cited “$52 million in cap space” next year means they’ll suddenly flip some switch and become buyers.

Of course, when the Pens win the McKenna lottery and all the above becomes moot, feel free to ‘freezing cold takes’ this column. In the meantime, strap in for the MATT DUMBA ERA, baby!!

I’m not gonna pretend I actually know more about the thirteen children drafted by the Penguins at this weekend’s NHL Draft than the many prospect hounds whose writing and video analysis I’ve devoured to formulate an opinion on any of these people. If you want firsthand draft pick / prospect analysis, read Jesse Marshall and Taylor Haase, follow @J_a155, watch Matt Meagher’s mixtapes, read Cory Pronman & Scott Wheeler at The Athletic, and check out Elite Prospects. I’m just some guy who watches a lot of hockey games, and none of those games involve the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies.

That said, the Pens’ approach at this Draft was fascinating and unpredictable, and the weekend told us a lot about the team, the league as a whole, and where Kyle Dubas’ “can-we-finally-call-it-a-rebuild?” rebuild is headed:

1. Kyle Dubas And Co. Do Not Care About Good PR

The Penguins could’ve easily gone chalk and drafted Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson with their two 1sts (or two other consensus #11-12 picks) and come away from the draft with a nice spiffy A or A- from all the publications doing their Draft Grade columns. Instead, they made a surprising pick at #11, then traded down from #12, then took two other first round players higher than their typical public rankings.

If the Pens had taken the obvious players in those spots and those players didn’t work out, the GM probably wouldn’t have taken too much heat for it. But now, if the players they passed on do turn into top flight NHLers, or if the guys they drafted instead bust, there’s a much bigger target on Dubas and his scouting department for “overthinking things” than if they had made picks more in line with the general consensus.

Josh Yohe wrote a column to this effect, but this approach shows just how little Dubas and his front office are concerned with how anything they do “looks” to the public. They’re doing what they truly believe is the best thing for the franchise with little regard for how it’ll be received. If fans are pissed they passed on Aitcheson or Jackson Smith, that doesn’t really concern them.

The Pens reaffirmed this even more in the middle rounds when they didn’t draft local Western PA prospect L.J. Mooney, despite having three 3rd round picks and a 4th (Mooney ended up going to Montreal in the middle of the 4th.) Taking Mooney would’ve bought the team a small fun “local kid makes good” story that would’ve gotten much more buzz and positive PR than taking four other mid-round randos most fans have never heard of and who probably have very little chance of making an NHL impact. This was clearly not a high priority for the GM.

It’ll take years before we know whether or not the Pens made the right picks. But we do know, unequivically, that Dubas feels secure enough in his position to carry out this rebuild his way. Whether he can “sell” it to fans or ownership from a PR perspective, or whether he’ll get ripped on for trying to be too unconventional, is not his concern.

2. They’re Not Zeroing In On One Type Of Player

The Penguins, like every other team in the league, are trying to get bigger and “harder to play against.” They used one of their 1sts on a 6’5” son of an NHLer and another on a 6’2” forechecking monster, then took defensemen who measured 6’6”, 6’2”, and 6’3”. But they used their highest pick on a skilled 5’11” center. They also used a mid-3rd on a goalie.

Clearly, the Pens are trying to get bigger and tougher, but aren’t so tunnel-visioned about that mantra that they’ll completely bypass a slightly undersized forward who they truly believe in from a talent perspective. Plus, while they ended up taking forwards with all three of their 1st round picks, Dubas said afterwards that they weren’t set on some “forwards only” plan coming in, and they followed these three by taking three defensemen and a goalie with their next four picks.

The Penguins’ system needs everything, and they’re proceeding as if they need everything. Positions, types of players, different feeder leagues — nothing’s off limits.

3. The Pens Don’t Believe They Can Lap The Field By Being Conventional

The Pens’ prospect pool came into this weekend generally considered in the bottom half of the league, and clearly lacks a Celebrini-type franchise talent. Some of the teams who already have better prospects than the Pens added another player at the top of the 1st Round this year: the Sharks, Blackhawks, Mammoth, Predators, Sabres, Kraken, and Ducks, to name…many. The Islanders landed a major prospect at last year’s trade deadline, then lucked into the 1st overall pick, then traded Noah Dobson for two 1st rounders that netted them two more premium prospects this year.

To put it bluntly: right now, the Penguins are nowhere near as good as the league’s top contenders, and they don’t have one of the league’s best prospect pools. They have a lot of work to go to join either group.

Recognizing this fact, Dubas appears to know he’s not going to gain ground on these teams by doing some sort of autopilot rebuild. They’ve given themselves the leeway to try weird stuff like trading down in the 1st round, fetching an extra 1st, then trading back up in the late 1st and early 2nd, and taking slightly off-the-map players each time. I imagine they’ll make some more unconventional signings during the free agent period too. And the Karlsson, Rakell, and Rust trades are coming.

4. Those Extra Wins Did Cost Them

I didn’t want to rehash this one, but by all accounts, the Pens tried very hard to trade up into the top 10 to nab one of the centers (or Porter Martone, who didn’t fall,) but teams just never end up wanting to trade out of the Top 10. Losing one more meaningless game after the deadline would’ve moved them from 11 to 9, even with the Islanders & Mammoth jumping up in the lottery, and they could’ve taken Roger McQueen if they’d wanted to. Three more losses would’ve gotten them into the Top 5. It’s pointless to think about now, but it is also naive to pretend that winning extra games in a tank year doesn’t hurt you.

If the Hockey Gods reward the Pens for not tanking, maybe McQueen’s injured back starts mysteriously acting up while the Pens come away with three impact players instead of one.

Also: None of the CRaAAzzZYYY TRADES rumored with the Top 10 picks ever happen. But let’s all make sure to completely forget that again next year when the rumblings start that “EVERYTHING is on the table in THIS Draft, unlike the last 90…”

5. There’ll Be Another Crosby Trade Rumor Every Week For The Rest Of Our Lives

We had multiple “Crosby is unhappy and looking to move…” rumors again this weekend. And once again, he made the decision in complete secret, leaking it only to peripheral, Pens-unaffiliated media who never land any other scoops, but happened to land this earthshattering one. Amazing!

With the Pens likely to bottom out this year, get ready for a new one of these insinuations every single week. It’s just such an easy way for a random writer or personality to get sudden attention, or a way for fans or media to ‘wishcast’ what they want to happen, or for cut-rate websites and fake Facebook pages to have their traffic-cake and eat it too by half-assing some weekly “We’re Not Saying Crosby’s Being Traded, But If He Were, Here Are 27 Trade Packages We’d Like To See” engagement-farming schlock.

This will be our new reality. Don’t engage; just move on. Unless trading Crosby can bump the Pens up from 9 to 11 next year. Think he’ll waive for Buffalo??

I started writing a feature about which pending Penguins UFAs and RFAs were worth bringing back, but quickly realized the group of names is extremely unexciting. Forcing you to read multiple dry, detailed breakdowns of each individual case would’ve been excruciating for us both.

Instead, I’ll attempt to “jazz up” this underwhelming group with an overblown gimmick: should the Pens KEEP these guys (denoted with this stock photo of a “contract”) or CAN THEM (denoted with various pics of cans.) Yes, it’s basically the same article, only now it’s more needlessly mean-sounding than I actually intend, and it’ll have pictures to break up the many boring words. Enjoy!

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS:

D Matt Grzelcyk

Grzelcyk looked like he was flirting with waivers early on in his Penguins tenure, then rebounded to quarterback the top unit on what ended up being the league’s 6th-best power play. But ultimately, a small 31-year-old defenseman who couldn’t fetch a return at the trade deadline last year doesn’t do a whole lot for the Pens’ present or future. They’ll look elsewhere for a left D.

Slight bummer, though, because after a full year I can finally type his name without looking up the spelling.

Verdict: CAN

F Boko Imama

Kyle Dubas has already said the Pens are interested in bringing Imama back if they can work something out. He shouldn’t cost anything, he won’t block anyone as the 13th/14th forward who can bounce in & out of the lineup or back to Wilkes-Barre, and in a long season where the team will almost certainly be bad, it doesn’t hurt to keep a guy around who everyone seems to like and who can start fights to spruce up boring midweek regular season games.

VERDICT: KEEP

F Joona Koppanen

Remember when the Pens called him up and everyone was like “who’s this guy?” and quickly found out he’s already 27? Figure he’ll get organically aged out of the mix.

VERDICT: CAN

F Matt Nieto

Nieto was, confusingly, the first free agent Kyle Dubas signed in the Summer of 2023, perhaps foreshadowing what would turn out to be a very bizarre, very poor first offseason for the new GM. Injuries marred Nieto’s Pens tenure, but either way, he’s already cleared waivers once and he’s 32. Both parties will move on.

VERDICT: CAN

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS:

F Emil Bemstrom

The Pens didn’t qualify Bemstrom last year after trading a 6th round pick and Alex Nylander to get him, but they re-signed him to a two-way contract and he was one of Wilkes-Barre’s leading scorers, putting up 48 points in 48 games (23 goals, 25 assists.) He didn’t do anything in the NHL (0 goals, 1 assist in 14 games,) but also only got 8 minutes of ice time a night playing mostly with 3rd and 4th liners.

He’s 26 now, he’s an arbitration-eligible RFA, and the Pens have barely used him at the NHL level. They’ll almost certainly part ways this offseason, and I have no problem with that. But I do wonder if some team will give Bemstrom a shot to “Stefan Noesen” his way back into the NHL — Noesen scored 48 goals in the AHL at age 29, then came back up with the Hurricanes, played admirably (and got some power play time,) and signed a 3 year x $2.75 million contract with the Devils this offseason.

Nevertheless… it’s can pic time.

F Connor Dewar

Dewar hustled his ass off with the Pens down the stretch last season — he was extremely noticeable on the forecheck, and even potted 4 goals in 17 games despite coming over from the Leafs with 0 in 31. He’s an arbitration-eligible RFA, and I’m sure the Pens won’t qualify him, but they could choose to not qualify him then re-sign him anyway like they did with Bemstrom a year ago.

He’ll be 26 later this month, though, and the Pens already have a number of veteran bottom-6ers under contract (Lizotte, Novak, Hayes, Acciari, and Heinen,) and that’s before potentially adding other salary-dump vets in trades this offseason. If Dewar does re-sign, I imagine it’ll be a league minimum two-way contract, which would be fine. But they have to see what else is out there first.

Unfortunately, “played well and wouldn’t mind if he comes back for nothing” is NOT one of the options, so it is CAN TIME (I’m sorry dude I can’t back out of this gimmick now!!!)

D Pierre-Olivier Joseph

Joseph’s skillset has him stuck in no man’s land: he’s not good enough offensively to be viewed as a play-driver or a power play QB, but he’s not good enough defensively or physical enough to be viewed as a shutdown guy or a bottom-pairing bruiser. He’s just kind of “a guy.” Hopefully he’ll continue to have an NHL career, because teams do always need D depth, but he’s gotten two runs in Pittsburgh and hasn’t established himself at all.

Here’s Keanu Reeves saying “CANS” a bunch of times in the movie Speed.

D Conor Timmins

Single-N Conor ate up 18 minutes a night for the Pens down the stretch while they were playing annoyingly well. He came over from the Maple Leafs at the trade deadline as a veteran body to help the post-deadline Pens get to the season’s finish line, but played better than expected, putting up a 55.2% expected-goals-for percentage in 17 games with Pittsburgh. He mostly played a sheltered third-pairing role while Letang & Karlsson ate up some of the harder minutes, but he ultimately played about as well as you can expect a veteran #3 RD to play in the role he filled.

He’s only 26, he’s got decent size (6’2” or 6’3”, depending on what stats page you trust,) and the Pens have no right D who are ready to step in and play immediately, especially if they end up trading Erik Karlsson. The list of free agent defensemen is boring as hell. Timmins is arbitration-eligible, but only made $1.1 million this year. I don’t see much harm in the Pens qualifying him and offering him 2 years x $2 million a year.

He checks all the boxes for a Dubas guy: decently physical, played for the Soo Greyhounds. End of list.

F Philip Tomasino

Ahhh Tommer. The former Nashville first rounder scored 11 goals and 12 assists in 50 games with the Pens after coming over for a 4th round pick. That’s an ~18 goal pace for an 82 game season — nothing groundbreaking, but perfectly acceptable for a middle-six winger who’s not on PP1.

My first instinct was, of course re-sign him, who cares. He was decent and he’s still young and they’re not overflowing with forward options. My second instinct was, careful, these extensions for unproven, non-core guys are the ones that sometimes turn into slight overpays if the forward struggles and plops down the depth chart (like he did in Nashville.) But then my third instinct was, that’s a very small risk and it’s one worth taking for the Pens because they have no other major guys they need to sign anytime soon. Which was basically just my first instinct again.

Some comparable RFA contracts that got signed last offseason (first-round-pick forwards coming off decent seasons):

• Connor McMichael: 25th overall pick coming off a 33 point season, signed with WSH for 2 years x $2.1 million

• Joe Veleno: 30th overall pick coming off a 28 point season, signed with DET for 2 years x $2.75 million

• Barrett Hayton: 5th overall pick coming off 10 points in 30 games (but had 43 points the year before,) signed with UTA for 2 years x $2.65 million

The cap going up should goose RFA contracts slightly, but Tomasino doesn’t have a ton of leverage either (as we saw from Nashville having trouble getting anything back for him,) so I bet those factors balance out and he ends up in this range. 2 years x $2.85 mil for Tommer and everybody’s happy?

Here’s that pic again. The bit will never wear thin!!!

Alright, we’re keeping Tomasino and Timmins, and signing Imama to a two-way deal. The rest of ya? Here’s Cricket from It’s Always Sunny getting blasted over the head with a garbage can.