Links (8)
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Disclaimer: Just because I include a link does not mean I endorse it or am confident in its claims.
I’m still here, just been a bit busy.
On the book front, I recently reread Lord of the Rings for the first time since reading it as a teenager. The series holds up so well. Nobody does dignified, serious heroes embedded in a rich world with a deep mythical history like Tolkien did. And man, could that guy write.
For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.
AI
Import AI 443: Into the mist: Moltbook, agent ecologies, and the internet in transition by Jack Clark: There’s an especially meta aspect to how Jack Clark is increasingly writing fiction about AIs post-uplift while also likely being one of the foremost documenters of the actual takeoff we’re going through. Perhaps someone needs to write a short story about how the AIs will view Jack Clark!
How close is AI to taking my job? by Anson Ho: Epoch researcher goes through their tasks, tests current AI systems, and assesses where they fall short. More people should do this!
Epoch’s Capabilities Index stitches together benchmarks across a wide range of difficulties by Luke Emberson: I’m finding this to be a very helpful resource for making AI predictions.
Designing AI-resistant technical evaluations by Anthropic: Anthropic on
Sam Altman on Trust, Persuasion, and the Future of Intelligence by Tyler Cowen: Tyler Cowen interviews Sam Altman. Come for the cookie conversational turn, stay for the discussion of GPT-6.
Distributed vs centralized agents by Richard Ngo: Fantastic article from Richard Ngo on the difference between distributed and centralized agents. Like much of my favorite writing, captures something that I feel has sort of been hovering at the edge of my awareness as an unease when thinking about these ideas but that I’ve never been able to crystallize.
Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon by Julian Bradshaw: Good qualitative analysis of where Claude has and hasn’t improved at playing Pokemon.
Will competition over advanced AI lead to war? by Oscar Delaney: Self-explanatory…
Story of A Chinese Vibe Coder by afra: We gotta get this guy over here.
Bio
Going Founder Mode On Cancer by Elliot Hershberg: Fantastic article by Elliot Hershberg on how the founder of GitLab, Sid Sijbrandij, has uniquely approached his cancer care.
Ask not why more talented people don’t work in biotech, but rather, what can we do about it? by Nathan C. Frey: Great article by my colleague, Nathan, that argues for a different perspective than Abhi’s on why more people don’t choose to work in biotech.
A manifesto for reviving biopharma productivity by Ruxandra Teslo: Rux is on a tear with another great entry in her growing corpus on improving American biopharma.
Why Clinical Trials Fail by Zach Kagin:
SpatialBench: real world tasks for spatial agents by Kenny Workman: Lots of useful turpentine from the Latch folks on building out a benchmark for spatial analysis/processing tasks.
I Read 130+ Books About Biotech, Medicine, and Science. Here’s the Full List I Wish Existed by Liang Chang: Books for the book god!
Business & Strategy
Speed Can Reindustrialize America by Austin Vernon: A coherent strategy for reindustrialization. Characteristically detailed and pointed.
How Warren Buffett Did It by Seth A. Klarman: An admiring ode to Warren Buffet, the 20th century’s greatest investor, and, as the article shows, a great man. Thanks to Tony Kulesa for the recommendation.
Culture Change Strategy by Roger L. Martin: Culture change is always and always downstream of actions not words. So easy to say. So easy to forget. So hard to do.
The Strategic Logic of the Netflix-Warner Bros. Deal by Roger L. Martin: Roger Martin compares the strategic logic behind Netflix-Warner Bros deal to the previous Warner acquisitions and comes out positive on Netflix’s strategy (but negative from a regulatory competitiveness perspective).
Failure Mode: Welchification by Rob L’Heureux: Starts with a stylized history of Jack Welch’s time and philosophy at GE and argues that this philosophy remains a problem for American manufacturers today. I am sure there’s some truth to this but a lot of internet commentary on industrials can feel a bit myopic and lacking a coherent (in the Rumelt sense) proposed strategy. Austin Vernon’s post, linked again later, does much better here.
Prediction: the Successor to Postmodernism by Alex Danco: Argues that prediction is replacing personalization as the organizing framework for businesses today. I think this is overly totalizing but, as with many totalizing frameworks, Danco gets at something real and important here about what makes prediction markets, speculation, and straight-up gambling all so compelling today.
The Fast Track Quick Screen Elimination Process: Jim Kilts at Gillette by Commoncog: Really good (paywalled) case study on how Jim Kilts decided what to do as part of Gillette’s turnaround. Unlike many studies of “simplicity”, this one actually gives some insight into the difficulty of crossing the complexity valley.
Policy & History
The Making of a Techno-Nationalist Elite by Tanner Greer: Fantastic social history of the previous American industrial revolution disguised as a review of Alex Karp’s new book. Highly, highly recommend this one.
Did the CHIPS “Everything Bagel”...Work? by Santi Ruiz: Santi interviews two of the leaders of the CHIPS Act office. Lots of good stuff here per usual, but my main takeaway is that the CHIPS Act was a huge win for interdisciplinary teams. They brought together government folks, finance veterans, and semiconductor experts and it worked really well! Also a big win for focusing on accountability rather than procedure. See quote below.
How to Run New York City by Santi Ruiz: Interview with former Deputy Mayor and current co-lead of Mamdani’s transition team on running NYC.
No Solvency, No Security by Trae Stephens: Anduril cofounder argues for the importance of mass production for the next war.
2025 letter by Dan Wang: Dan Wang’s annual letter - self-recommending.
The China Tech Canon by Asterisk: Good article laying out the Chinese tech canon. In hindsight, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised that Chinese founders are just as obsessed with history and fiction as American ones!
“Good engineering management” is a fad by Will Larson: Will Larson reflecting on the different eras of engineering management and how most of what each era recommended was, in hindsight, a “fad”.
Know Your Enemy, Love Your Enemy by Linch: As someone who enjoys having nemeses, this is a good reminder that true strength is being able to love your enemy while keeping them as an enemy.
Coalitions Between are made by Coalitions Within by Malcolm Ocean: (Ironically) I have mixed feelings about what I usually call “the feelings people” on the internet. I have benefited from reading some of the canonical books on IFS and the language and concepts these folks use for understanding my own psyche. But I have also seen how too much looking inward can turn into solipsistic hippie fantasy land (for lack of a more diplomatic phrasing).
This piece mostly focuses on the dynamics of gelled collectives and their interaction with internal (to one person) coalitions. If you’re not already familiar with the “parts” world, it is probably not a great introduction, as it assumes the reader already understands the concepts it builds upon. If you are already familiar and interested, then maybe you’ll enjoy it.
Misc
Tight feedback loops by Brian Lui: The Equal and Opposite Advice to my love of fast feedback loops.
Julia by Fernando Borretti: Great short story with shades of Borges and Watts alike.
A Thousand Ways by Michael Dempsey: Michael Dempsey on writing.